013 FXUS63 KFGF 312016 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 316 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Minimal impacts in the short term with attention being primarily in the long term wrt to storms and heavy rainfall potential. With western high plains troughing developing overnight will see southeasterly winds persist helping keep temps a bit warmer than the past couple morning's with lows in the mid and upper 50s. As the pressure gradient tightens with the approach of the western SFC trough winds will increase Wednesday with southeasterly gusts at 25 to 35mph. Highs will be in around 80 with increasing upper level clouds moving into the area in the late afternoon. Models continue to key in on a lead shortwave ejecting NE in the mean flow from SD into SE ND and as it does will see thunderstorm chances increase late Wednesday fueled by an increasing low level jet. If a complex does develop activity may lift northeast into SE ND late in the evening or after midnight. If this occurs there will be the possibility of marginally severe wind or hail overnight. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Moderate to Heavy Rain Chances... Wednesday night through Friday morning a trough moves in from the Pacific NW, with a quick moving shortwave ahead of the main system. Monsoonal moisture is driven through the low to mid levels into the northern Plains, with PW values approaching 1.25-1.75inches. Along the front associated with the trough temperature/moisture advection is strong across ensembles. Frontogenesis is relatively strong along the front, with the potential for a deformation zone developing allowing for the prolonged rain to continue past the front. Cluster analysis shows higher confidence in the chances for heavier rain, but lacks in the axis of formation of the precipitation. This is caused by the timing and propagation of the system. Faster and earlier passage doesn't allow for further moisture/temperature advection into the northern valley limiting precipitation amounts. While a slower progression would allow for moisture to flow further toward the International border, with higher instability. This allows for higher amounts to spread across a majority of the region. Current ensembles indicator the faster propagation, with higher rain rates along I-94 points SE. At this time, chances for exceeding 0.5 inches across the area is 40-80%. High end scenario is exceeding 3.0 inches, which falls in around a 10-20% chance for areas south and east of Fargo. The Holiday Weekend... Conditions turn cooler and drier through the weekend, with highs in the mid 70s as a ridge builds west. Conditions remain dry through the holiday before rain chances increase next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Aug 31 2021 VFR with primarily SKC or some high cirrus for the period. Will see SE winds persist with gusts increasing tomorrow morning. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...Spender AVIATION...JK