340 FXUS64 KMOB 301251 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 751 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021 .AVIATION /30.12Z Issuance/...Conditions across the forecast today will primarily be low end MVFR to IFR as a band of heavy rainfall associated with Hurricane Ida moves slowly west to east across the region. Southeast to south winds from 20 to occasional gusts to 30 knots (expecially down near the coast and over the western half of the forecast area). Winds will be a little lower over the eastern part of the area. /12 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 457 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021/ NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Tuesday/...Ida has been downgraded to a tropical storm this morning as the core of the system, which is currently just southwest of McComb MS, is lifting out of LA and into MS. Ida will continue to lift north across central MS today into tonight, then begin to lift northeast into the TN Valley area by Tuesday afternoon. As the system lifts north today, a large band of showers and storms advecting northward up toward the center of the storm will move slowly east across our forecast area today and tonight. Training cells along this line will continue to result in the threat of heavy rain across the entire area through tonight. With that in mind we will maintain the Flash Flood Watch, and earlier extended it to cover all counties within our forecast area. Rains will be likely across most of the forecast area today and tonight, and then focused more over the eastern portions of the forecast area on Tuesday. An additional 6 to 12 inches of rainfall is possible over the western half of our forecast area, with isolated 15 inches possible. Over the eastern half of our forecast area (which will primarily fall tonight) an additional 4 to 8 inches is possible. This rainfall, on top of what has already fell and saturated grounds will likely result in flash flooding of some areas. There will continue to be some gusty winds across the area today, particularly in association with the deeper convection that will be occurring for most of the day. A Tropical Storm Warning continues over our MS counties and three southwestern most AL counties through early this morning, but will likely be dropped later today. To the east of the Tropical Storm Warning we will maintain a Wind Advisory for all of the remainder of our forecast area as a moderate southerly flow continues, with stronger gusts again near the deeper convection. A tornado threat will continue across the entire area today, and perhaps over the eastern portions of the forecast area on Tuesday. Any potential tornadoes will be associated with the spiral bands feeding into Tropical Storm Ida. Latest model guidance suggests strong low-level shear will remain confined to the eastern semicircle and there is reason to believe some boundary-layer heating will contribute to buoyancy from southern LA to the FL Panhandle. Forecast thermodynamic profiles would yield at least 2500 J/kg MLCAPE with these temperatures and more robust updrafts can be expected. Coastal hazards associated with Ida will continue today as well. Minor to moderate coastal flooding has been occurring along the coast of AL and the Mobile Bay area since yesterday afternoon, and peak water levels associated with the storm will likely occur early this morning (around daybreak) as we approach astronomical high tide and the strong, gusty winds become more southerly. In the northern reaches of Mobile Bay and down along the coast of Mobile county on the MS Sound, water levels are currently running between 3 to 3.5 feet above normally dry ground. These water levels will likely rise a little more to their peak as we reach high tide this morning, but will remain above normal levels (and possibly in the minor flood criteria) at some locations through the course of the day. Water levels will remain elevated through mid week as the onshore flow persists, and we will have to monitor as to whether or not any coastal flood products will need to be extended further in time. In addition to the coastal flood threat, a High Surf Warning and High risk of rip currents will continue early this week as well. High temperatures today will be below normal, generally by about 5 to 10 degrees, ranging from the upper 70s to the lower 80s for most locations. Lows tonight in the 70s, and then highs on Tuesday similar to today but warmer by about 6 or 8 degrees. /12 SHORT TERM /Tuesday night Through Wednesday night/...Conditions improve across the region during the short term as the remnants of Ida lift northeast to the mid Atlantic states by Wednesday night. A trailing trough will be extending back into the southeast from the remnants, dropping down to the coast by Wednesday night. With this rain chances will lessen and become more limited to the southern half of the forecast area as deep later drier air filters into the region with a sharp upper trough axis over the eastern third of the country. Nighttime lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s over inland areas and low to mid 70s closer to and along the coast. Highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 80s. /12 EXTENDED TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The aforementioned upper trough actually deepens and moves off the east coast Thursday into the weekend, with high pressure building into the south in its wake. Deeper moisture is push offshore into the Gulf and a mostly dry forecast is expected through the extend period except for down near the coast where slightly better moisture and daily sea breezes will result in some isolated convection. Highs each day will range from the low and mid 80s to the lower 90s across the region. Overnight min temps will be quite a bit cooler, with lows both Thursday night and Friday night in the mid 60s inland and lower 70s at the coast. /12 MARINE...High impact marine conditions continue through at least tonight and likely into midweek as moderate to strong onshore flow persists as Ida lifts northward away from the marine area. Late in the week winds and seas steadily subside. /12 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for ALZ051>060-261>266. Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ052-261>266. Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051-053>060. Storm Surge Warning for ALZ263>266. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for ALZ265- 266. High Surf Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ265-266. FL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for FLZ201>206. Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206. High Rip Current Risk through late Wednesday night for FLZ202- 204-206. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202- 204-206. High Surf Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MSZ067-075-076-078- 079. Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ067-075-076-078-079. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ630>633-650-655-670-675. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ634>636. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: http://weather.gov/mob