816 
FXUS63 KMKX 300731
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
231 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 230 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021)

Today through Tuesday night:

High pressure begins to take shape to our north today with winds
becoming more northerly through the day. Slight breezes and sunny
skies will allow temps to warm into the lower 80s for much of the
area. Drier air will continue to slowly move in and should make
for a rather nice day across southern Wisconsin. 

The high pressure strengthens and shifts to just north of Lake
Superior. This will result in a front moving down Lake Michigan on
Tuesday as winds become more east to northeast through the day.
The increase in winds over the lake could bring some higher waves
to beaches and is something worth watching for folks that might
still make a trip to the beach. This front and E/NE flow will keep
any precip to our south and have removed pops for Tuesday. Expect
highs in the 70s to near 80. 

Stumpf

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 230 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021)

Wednesday through Thursday night

The stretch of dry weather will continue into Thursday as high
pressure remains over Lake Superior. Winds stay out of the north 
Wednesday with a gradual shift to the E/SE by Thursday night as 
the high begins to move into the eastern Great Lakes. Highs stay 
in the 70s to near 80 each day.

Friday through Sunday:

The pattern as we begin to enter the Labor Day weekend starts to
change. A ridge over the SW U.S. on Tuesday begins to shift east
into the central/southern Plains by Thursday. Moisture that has
been bottled up in NW Mexico and along the Gulf of California due
to the ridge will be released and a trough moving across the Pac
NW will aide in the moisture transport N/NE into the northern
Plains. By Friday the ridge begins to flatten and a few shortwaves
moving through the west to east flow could work with the increased
moisture axis to bring some rain chances to southern Wisconsin
to end the week. Differences have emerged in latest guidance on
the strength of the flat ridge. The ECMWF suggests the ridge being
suppressed further to the south over the weekend and that may
bring some cooler conditions for Sunday into Labor Day. The GFS on
the other hand keeps the flattened ridge in place and we could see
additional shortwaves move through the flow. This would be more of
an ideal case to help with the lack of precip. But ensemble
solutions suggest a mix bag of scenarios. So for now will keep
some limited precip chances in the forecast and stick with a blend
of guidance. 

Stumpf

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 230 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021)

VFR conditions are forecast through the period as high pressure
builds to our north. Winds stay out of the W/NW through the period
and then become light and variable at night. Some patchy ground
fog is possible this morning and again tonight but mainly for low
lying areas in the western portions of the area. 

Stumpf

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 230 AM CDT Mon Aug 30 2021)

Westerly breezes will continue through the afternoon but then
become light tonight. As high pressure strengthens to our north
winds switch to the north to northeast on Tuesday with a front
working south over Lake Michigan. Some gusts to 20 kts are
possible but main thing is this could result in waves building to
near small craft conditions Tuesday night through Wednesday. Winds
begin to shift back to the S/SE to end the week. 

Stumpf

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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