748 FXUS64 KBRO 281937 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 237 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 .SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): A weak 500mb low/inverted trough over the CWA, ample moisture in place, and the seabreeze will continue to support some convection through early this evening. Brownsville radar currently indicates some activity across the Gulf waters and portions of Cameron County. The main attention continues to be on strengthening hurricane Ida tracking northwestward across the central Gulf of Mexico early this afternoon. Ida is expected to make landfall along the coast of Louisiana as a extremely dangerous major hurricane on Sunday. Please refer to the latest National Hurricane Center advisories for the latest information. No direct impacts are expected for the inland areas of the Rio Grande Valley and the northern ranchlands from Hurricane Ida. However, large swells directed towards the lower Texas coast from Ida will provide elevated rip currents, possibly high surf, and minor coastal flooding at high tide Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure over northeast Mexico and subsidence from Ida will result in generally hotter and drier conditions on Sunday. Also, the drier air on the western periphery of Hurricane Ida will bring lower dewpoints into the area on Sunday resulting in lower heat indices. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern portions of deep south Texas Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): Hot and dry weather will prevail for much of the long term. Afternoon temperatures will range from the mid 90s across the east to a few degrees above the century mark for western and northwestern sections. Thanks to slightly drier air out west, heat index values will be held to between around 103 and 108 degrees. Rainfall should be limited Monday and Tuesday, but moisture availability will increase mid to late weak, supporting increased afternoon coastal convection. In addition to increased swell form Ida Sunday night into Monday, an elevated rip current threat and possible minor coastal flooding will be other hazards in play early in the long term. && .MARINE: Now through Sunday Night: Buoy 42020 reported east-northeast winds around 6 knots gusting to around 10 knots with seas slightly near 2 feet with a period of 4 seconds at 1350 CDT/1850 UTC. Favorable marine conditions will continue along the lower Texas coast through this evening with generally light winds and low seas. Adverse conditions are expected to develop on Sunday as higher swells generated from Hurricane Ida are expected to reach the lower Texas coast. Small Craft Advisories will be needed on the Gulf waters Sunday into Sunday night due to high seas. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will produce light to moderate winds along the lower Texas through Sunday night. Monday through Thursday Night: Larger swells from Ida will persist into Monday along with any ongoing small craft advisory conditions. Seas will trend down to moderate late Monday and beyond, however. Winds will generally be moderate southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 92 76 95 / 10 20 10 0 BROWNSVILLE 78 96 78 98 / 10 20 10 0 HARLINGEN 75 97 75 99 / 10 20 10 0 MCALLEN 75 99 76 100 / 10 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 102 75 104 / 0 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 89 / 10 20 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: https://weather.gov/rgv 63-KC/54-BHM