255 FXUS64 KMAF 270801 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 301 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will be out of the southeast and will be fairly light. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 An upper trough extends from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. This has resulted in the weakening of the upper ridge over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Temperatures today are expected to be similar to yesterday with highs mostly in the 80s and 90s. Surface winds will mainly be out of the southeast today which will continue to bring in low-level moisture. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly across the Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend, Davis Mountains, and Guadalupe Mountains. High low-level moisture will be across the area tonight with low temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Temperatures will cool slightly for Saturday with highs in the upper 80s across portions of the Permian Basin. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend, and Davis Mountains on Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 By mid weekend, the pattern will have shifted significantly, with now Tropical Storm Ida progged to have intensified to a Hurricane, progressing toward a coastal Louisiana landfall, and Tropical Storm Nora strengthening and drifting northward toward Baja California Sur. Both of these systems will dictate the weather pattern across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas, particularly early next week. Locally, Saturday night into Sunday, a weak disturbance will be traversing across the region, yielding continued storm chances across the Rio Grande Valley and Big Bend Area Saturday night, expanding across the higher terrain, Southeast New Mexico, much of the Permian Basin, and Lower Trans Pecos during the day on Sunday. While activity should remain isolated and severe weather is not currently expected, gusty winds and lightning should be expected with any storm that develops. The slow and subtle cooling trend we've seen the past few days will continue Sunday, with highs in the 80s and lower 90s for most, with middle to upper 90s localized to the Rio Grande Valley. Given the aforementioned tropical systems, the forecast for next week remains uncertain. Currently, consensus is for Ida to make landfall along the Louisiana coast Sunday evening, and then progress inland before veering to the northeast toward the Tennessee Valley through early next week. Nora is progged to move north over the Baja Peninsula, weakening and becoming absorbed into a longwave trough over the western CONUS next week. The strength and timing of both of these systems, as well as their eventual tracks (which are still subject to change over the coming days), will dictate our weather locally. Currently, it appears that the Central and South Plains will wind up "sandwiched" between the two, beneath a building ridge to the west of Ida, and ahead of the aforementioned western CONUS trough. This would yield a warming trend across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas early next week, with temperatures rebounding closer to normal in the upper 80s and lower to middle 90s by Tuesday/Wednesday. Beyond midweek, temperatures look to cool slightly as the ridge drifts northeastward, with storm chances mainly confined to the favored higher terrain and adjacent plains to the west through the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 92 70 89 71 / 10 0 10 0 Carlsbad 92 68 91 68 / 10 10 0 0 Dryden 94 72 92 74 / 20 10 20 10 Fort Stockton 92 69 90 69 / 10 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 84 65 84 64 / 20 10 0 0 Hobbs 91 66 90 67 / 10 0 0 0 Marfa 87 60 86 61 / 20 10 10 10 Midland Intl Airport 92 69 89 70 / 10 0 10 0 Odessa 93 70 90 69 / 10 0 10 0 Wink 96 72 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...80 LONG TERM....84 AVIATION...80