536 
FXUS63 KOAX 270755
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
255 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...Today through Friday...

A robust LLJ pushing into eastern NE provided support to storms 
developing along the NE/SD border overnight. Additionally, these 
storms were fueled by ample moisture, indicated by a PWAT just shy
of 2 inches in the 00Z sounding. Weakening, the remnants of the 
early morning thunderstorms will continue to move out of eastern 
NE and into northern Iowa. Hot and humid southerly flow will bring
yet another warm day. Afternoon highs are expected to top out in 
the low to mid 90s, with heat indicies in the low 100s, just shy 
of Heat Advisory criteria. 

Redevelopment of afternoon/evening thunderstorms does look possible 
once again, but will be greatly dependent on how the morning 
convection plays out.  While most of models indicate instability 
pooling to the south of a frontal boundary, there is still some 
question as to where exactly this boundary will set up. Latest 
guidance suggests the best potential will be just to the northeast 
of our forecast area, with perhaps northeast NE and western IA 
possibly being impacted along and north of I-80. Similar to the 
previous night, if storms are able to develop over our area, the 
main threat would likely be strong/damaging winds and heavy 
rainfall, as storms recently have struggled to sustain large hail 
due to the warm temperatures.  

...Saturday and Sunday...

Hot weather continues Saturday, with yet another chance for strong 
to severe storms.  Temperatures will once again reach into the 90s 
with heat index values  nearing 100 degrees. An upper level trough 
will help usher a cold front through the central plains Saturday 
evening and overnight, providing a focus for thunderstorm 
development.  

The good news is, this frontal passage will finally give us a little 
relief from the heat.  Highs on Sunday and into early next week will 
top out in the low to mid 80s. 

...Next Week...

Unfortunately, our break from the heat won't last long. Upper level 
ridging will begin to build back into the central CONUS by mid week, 
allowing warmer temperatures to return.  On again, off again 
thunderstorm chances will also continue next week, as multiple 
shortwaves pass through the region. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

Strong to severe storms are expected to move through KOFK early in
the period, with the potential for strong winds and heavy
rainfall. A few spotty showers and storms could develop farther
south, towards KLNK and KOMA before 12Z, but confidence is low in
anything affecting the TAF sites at this time. LLWS does look
likely at all 3 sites through the morning hours. Another round of
storms could develop Friday afternoon/evening, however confidence
is once again low in how that will play out. 


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG