246 FXUS64 KLUB 262312 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 612 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 .AVIATION... VFR next 24 hours. Check density altitude. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 214 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021/ SHORT TERM... Stable atmosphere across the Southern Plains continues to yield little change in pattern or ambient weather conditions. There has been a slight increase in boundary layer moisture, sourced from central Texas and seen in increased PWATS on the Caprock around 1.25", and approaching 1.50" over the Rolling Plains. A cu-field has begun to develop early this afternoon but strong capping aloft should keep a lid on showers developing in our CWA, but some isolated convection can be seen currently in the Hill Country. Overnight lows tonight will once again be seasonably mild, with highs tomorrow almost exactly the same as we're seeing today, low/mid 90s on the Caprock, upper 90s off the Caprock. If you're outside for extended periods of time, stay hydrated. LONG TERM... There is little in the way of thinking for the forecast for the next week or so. Two separate upper level ridge centers will be to our east and west placing West Texas under a relative weakness in the heights overhead. Precipitation chances will creep back into the area on Sunday afternoon/evening. Monsoonal moisture will creep around the upper ridge in the southwestern US and be positioned from central New Mexico through the Texas Panhandle. A surface pressure trough positioned in roughly the same location will provide the necessary surface convergence to produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms. However, low instability on the order of 500 J/kg will likely keep storms from becoming an organized severe threat. The best chances for storms will be in the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle closest to the surface trough. The mid level moisture will begin to be pinched off on Monday along with the surface trough retreating back farther westward. Additionally, the upper ridge over the southwestern US will begin to amplify resulting in rising heights. This ridge will then shift over the southern plains by midweek likely keeping conditions dry locally. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/26