720 
FXUS64 KLUB 250843
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
343 AM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

.SHORT TERM...
Upper ridging will continue to control our weather locally, meaning 
another hot and dry day. Temperatures should be very similar to 
yesterday, peaking in the middle 90s for most spots on the Caprock, 
while the lower elevations to the east reach the upper 90s to about 
104 degrees. There could be a little cirrus at times, but otherwise 
nearly full insolation. Another warm evening and mild night will 
follow tonight.

.LONG TERM...
The general theme of the long term forecast remains unchanged, with 
generally dry conditions expected through much of the period. 
Precipitation chances will be essentially zero through Saturday as 
what remains of the thin monsoonal moisture plume shifts 
northwestward out of the area. A relatively dry atmospheric column 
will result, as deep daytime mixing combined with overall subsidence 
provides continued above-average temperatures across the CWA each 
afternoon through Saturday. 

Despite the persistence in our day-to-day weather during the late 
week period, the upper level pattern will slowly be evolving during 
this time away from the stagnant ridging which has dominated for 
much of the past week. The single anticyclonic 500mb high center 
present over the Central Plains on Thursday will progressively 
flatten as a series of shortwaves infringes on it from persistent 
troughing over the Intermountain West. This will eventually cause 
the ridge to split into two separate anticyclonic centers by Friday 
evening, with one shifting westward towards the Four Corners and the 
other shifting eastward. The result will be a weakness in the upper 
height field over the TX/OK Panhandles into the South Plains over 
the weekend. The primary consequence of this will be cooler 
temperatures over much of the area, with this weakness also allowing 
for an increase in mid/upper level moisture Sunday into Monday. 
Guidance still indicates a surface front will approach from the 
north late Sunday evening, but trends suggest this front will likely 
wash out north of the CWA. Still, given the increasing moisture and 
the approach of the front, have kept slight chance PoPs over the 
southern TX Panhandle and northern South Plains Sunday night, which 
further refinements still possible depending on the strength of the 
front.

Next week, guidance continues to suggest a tropical cyclone will 
emerge from the Gulf of Mexico during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. 
The aforementioned weakness in the upper ridging would appear to 
give this cyclone a chance to move northward towards the Gulf Coast 
and possibly into the vicinity of our area, but it is much too early 
to try to hone in on a potential track and associated impacts. Given 
this uncertainty, have accepted the blended solution for early next 
week which favors generally dry and slightly cooler conditions over 
the local area. /DWK 

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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