501 FXUS65 KTFX 231937 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 137 PM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the next week. A cold front will push south across the area this evening into the overnight and bring seasonably cool temperatures in the 30s to lower- 40s across the region. Dry but breezy conditions are expected Tuesday with northwesterly breezes turning easterly ahead of the next disturbance Wednesday into Thursday, which will see scattered and a few thunderstorms push northeast across the region. && .DISCUSSION... Mean overall upper-level trough will remain over or to the west of the area for the next 7 days, allowing for continued unsettled weather. For the remainder of today into tonight, a surface cold front will push south and cause a wind shift from westerly to more northerly. Model guidance, especially high-res ones, depict a brief period of wind gusts as high as 35-40 mph near or across the Hi-Line as this front passes quickly through. This front will also allow for a seasonably cool air mass to settle over the area by morning, with low temperatures Tuesday morning in the 30s to lower-40s across the region. Breezy northwesterly winds occur primarily over the plains Tuesday as a potent upper-level disturbance grazes the area from the north moving east. Winds shift to easterly by Tuesday night as yet another disturbance approaches in southwesterly flow Wednesday, with periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and persisting into Thursday for primarily eastern areas before a potential temporary reprieve in shower/storm activity for the area Friday morning. Friday through next Tuesday... Another system looks to dive southeastward into the Northern Rockies on the second half of Friday into Saturday for another good chance of showers and thunderstorms area-wide. Transient ridging may bring a temporary shift to drier and warmer conditions on Sunday/Monday, but it appears the unsettled pattern resumes shortly after. Temperatures look to run about 5 to 15 degrees below the seasonal average for much of the period, though Sunday and Monday may see readings closer to normal. -RCG && .AVIATION... 1100 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 (23/18Z TAF period) VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours, though brief reductions to MVFR may be possible in SW MT due to patchy dense smoky haze. Other consideration today will be a wind shift with a cold front overnight tonight, with winds shifting to a more northerly direction behind the front. Ludwig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 39 65 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 38 61 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 43 72 46 79 / 0 0 0 10 BZN 40 73 42 78 / 10 0 0 20 WYS 33 71 37 73 / 0 10 10 30 DLN 38 72 42 77 / 0 0 0 20 HVR 43 65 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 42 63 42 72 / 10 0 10 10 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls