153 FXUS65 KABQ 212340 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 540 PM MDT Sat Aug 21 2021 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Isolated evening convection will continue to favor Roosevelt and Curry counties with mostly sct cumulus clouds elsewhere. A more robust round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast mainly for areas along and south of I-40 on Sunday as monsoon moisture returns. Locally heavy rainfall along with gusty outflow winds will be the main impact from storms possibly impacting KABQ, KAEG and KROW from mid to late afternoon. Storm motion will be to the east and northeast around 10 kts. 33 && .PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MDT Sat Aug 21 2021... .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures will be near to above normal for the next 7 days, except for above normal readings areawide Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will become wetter and more widespread Sunday and to a lesser extent Monday. Then, a significant downtick in the coverage and wetness of showers and thunderstorms is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as temperatures climb up to 10 degrees above normal. The latter half of the week looks more unsettled with daily rounds of scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms initially over western and northern areas. Then, the activity will spread onto the eastern plains as well toward the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... The surface front entered northern NM with the backdoor segment taking a bit longer to retreat and wash out than what was modeled yesterday. This boundary has brought just a few degrees of cooler temperatures into the northeastern plains, but with a surface low over southeast NM, an easterly component could provide a bit more directional wind shear to work with as storm continue to develop. This might allow for an isolated strong to severe cell or two in Curry or Roosevelt counties. Elsewhere storms are struggling to get going, even over the high terrain. Visible satellite imagery still indicates some horizontal convective rolls and cloud streets that suggest instability has not been sufficient to sustain updrafts for storms just yet. Through the early evening the northern, southwestern and south central mountains will still have an opportunity to destabilize with Lincoln county likely seeing the earliest and best chance for appreciable rainfall. Storms will be on a downward trend late this evening with minimal activity expected to survive beyond midnight. However, surface winds will continue to turn increasingly southerly tonight, advecting more moisture into the southern tier of the forecast area. In addition, a weak perturbation aloft over Chihuahua is projected to lift into this area amid rising PWATs. While elevated showers/storms may be induced by the nocturnal warm-moist air advection, the more likely scenario points toward a better slug of deep, moist convection Sunday afternoon with the focus over our south central to southwestern zones. Because there is an absence of antecedent conditions, will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for these southern zones, but CAMs and global models alike are painting hefty QPF in this area and some zones adjacent to the north. 52 LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... The center of high pressure at 500 mb will linger around the OK/AR border through Thursday, then weaken while it shifts eastward at the end of the week. Protruding westward from the high pressure center and across southern NM will be a mid-level ridge axis that will limit the amount of monsoon moisture that can spread northward over NM during the first half of the work week. There will be enough moisture for scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms across northern and western areas Monday. Then, drier air will move over NM from the southeast with a significant downtick in the coverage and wetness of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and and possibly into Wednesday. There is some uncertainty about the coverage of thunderstorms over northern areas Wednesday afternoon and evening. An upper level trough crossing the central Rockies could produce an uptick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms there, but moisture may be limited with PWATs mostly around 0.8 inches and above normal temperatures. If there is an increase in convective coverage wetting footprints should be small with the potential for erratic dry microburst wind gusts near 50 mph. The latter half of the week will feature daily rounds of scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms that will move slowly with a risk of locally heavy rainfall. The upper high over the central US will retreat eastward while a new upper high begins to develop over the Great Basin. Meanwhile, the westerlies will be active over the north central US, drawing better low level moisture over NM from the south and southeast. Disturbances clipping northeast NM in northwest flow aloft will help to spread some of these storms onto the eastern plains by Friday. With the increasing moisture, high temperatures will trend a little closer to normal. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... After a brief hiatus the monsoon is returning late today and Sunday. Low level moisture will increase tonight, especially in the southeastern half of the forecast area and most zones will observe good to excellent RH recovery into Sunday morning. After a small area in the east central plains receives some wetting rainfall today, the prospects for storms and rain do increase and expand on Sunday with the disturbance aloft arriving. However, much of next week appears to be characterized by a low grade or sparse count of storms, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday. Any storms that form west of the Continental Divide will still be less efficient at producing appreciable rainfall rates. This will leave only spotty high terrain rainfall coverage west of the Divide with still minimal to no coverage over the northwest plateau. The rising Energy Release Components over the far northern NM and greater northwest plateau area of the state still suggest drying fuels over these areas through late next week. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$