633 
FXUS66 KHNX 212310 AAA
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hanford CA
410 PM PDT Sat Aug 21 2021

.UPDATE...
Updated Air Quality Section.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Smoke and haze continue to linger around the area due to area
wildfires. Below average temperatures for the next few days are 
expected due to troughing aloft and area smoke. Much warmer by the
end of next week, with high temperatures forecast to be as much 
as 10 degrees above average. Dry weather is forecast to prevail 
for the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not quite as smokey today across most of the region as the flow 
pattern has shifted, with southwesterly flow aloft over the 
region. A lot of the smoke and ash that was making it into the 
valley from the French Fire has been re-directed to the northeast,
but poor air quality continues.

The trough that is giving us the southwesterly flow aloft will
pass through Montana tonight and tomorrow morning, but a long-wave
troughing pattern remains in place for a few days. There is good 
model agreement on this type of pattern developing. This will lead
to afternoon highs being a few degrees below normal through 
Monday and possibly Tuesday. 500 mb heights rise a few decameters 
Wednesday and Thursday. For us, this means warmer weather, with 
the continuation of dry weather. High temperatures on Thursday are
forecast to be just under the Century Mark for much of the San 
Joaquin Valley. 

Ensemble guidance is showing a building EPAC ridge by Friday and 
Saturday of this week. NBM guidance is showing much warmer 
temperatures by Saturday, with highs of 103-107 degrees forecast. 
Currently, there is a 37% chance of 105 degrees Saturday in Fresno
and a 41% chance of 105 degrees in Bakersfield according to NBM 
probabilistic data. Dry weather is expected for at least the next 
seven days. 

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR with local mountain obscured IFR visibilities in 
smoke and haze across a majority of the central California 
Interior will continue over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
Please see SFOAQAHNX for an Air Quality Alert.

On Sunday August 22 2021... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in
Fresno... Kern... Kings... Madera and Tulare Counties and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

public...Bollenbacher
aviation....Bollenbacher

weather.gov/hanford