214 FXUS63 KJKL 212015 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 415 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 415 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2021 A relatively quiet short term is expected with summer conditions prevailing. Currently partly cloudy skies reside over eastern Kentucky, with a fair weather cumulus field over the majority of the CWA and a few high cirrus and scattered showers over the extreme southwest counties. The latest upper level maps depict an upper level trough over the Lower Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic states. High pressure resides over eastern Texas with ridging reaching up towards the Upper Great Lakes. A northern stream trough sits over the Pacific Northwest with an axis through central Washington state. Hurricane Henri currently sits a couple hundred miles off the North Carolina coast and will continue to progress northward. At the surface, high pressure sits to our east over the Virginias, a diffuse stationary front sits through central Tennessee, running northwest to southeast, and a runs through central Wisconsin down into the Texas panhandle. A similar upper level pattern is expected over eastern Kentucky for Sunday, keeping eastern Kentucky relatively quiet. The northern stream trough advances east with an axis over eastern Montana at 15Z Sunday. Ridging over the Mississippi Valley up into the Upper Great Lakes will amplify, allowing for height rises over the Commonwealth. A few widely scattered showers or storms are possible across the extreme southwest counties during the afternoon. Conditions are expected to remain dry across most of the area with the exception of the southwest counties. High temperatures will be a few degrees above normal Sunday afternoon, reaching the upper 80s at most locations. Cloud cover will vary between partly cloudy during the day and mostly clear during the overnight hours. Lows will drop into the mid to upper 60s with ridge to valley splits possible under clearing conditions. Areas of fog are possible tonight across eastern Kentucky with the densest fog expected along the river valleys. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 415 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2021 Models are still in fair agreement over the upper level pattern through much of the extended. We start just west of a departing low moving towards the Northeast. Ridging dominates over the Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley, and is spreading northeast towards our region. The ridging continues to expand through the early part of the work week, both across our area as well as further to the west, eventually dominating across much of the southern CONUS. Moving forward, this pattern continues as various waves move through the northern stream flow, before a more prominent trough moves east across the Northern Plains near the very end of the period. At the surface, high pressure dominates early on, before a low, supported by one of the northern stream waves aloft, travels across the northern Mississippi Valley before moving northeast into Canada, while pushing a front toward the region near the end of the week. In regards to sensible weather, Monday should stay pleasantly dry, thanks to the rising heights and surface high pressure. Though this will also contribute to warmer temperatures. Tuesday, there's slightly better moisture and with some weak passing energy aloft, and some models are bring in some isolated precip. Ensemble means generally don't show much, but there is some spread, so have kept with the solution given by the NBM, which keeps a slight chance in the far western portions of the area. Going forward, models are struggling to come together on details such as coverage and timing, but in general, the overall pattern is fairly well established. Overall, winds shift to have more of a southerly component and help bring more moisture into the area, and rain chances increase, peaking generally in the afternoons and evenings. Rain chances are at their highest on Thursday, aided by previously mentioned front nearing the area. A warm, summertime feeling continues through at least the middle of the week, with highs reaching up to the upper 80s to around 90 through Wednesday. Highs then begin to cool slightly to the mid 80s by end of the week and into the weekend. Lows generally stay in the upper 60s to around 70, outside of a few valley locations possibly dipping into the mid 60s on the nights with the better clearing. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2021 VFR conditions are expected for a large portion of the 18Z TAF period with mainly some fair weather cumulus spread across the CWA. Fog will likely develop across eastern Kentucky during the early morning hours,bringing visibilities down to IFR conditions or possibly lower. Fog will be densest along the river valleys and may not completely burn off until after 12Z. Winds during the time period will be light and variable. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BATZ LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...BATZ