116 FXUS62 KMFL 211908 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 308 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...A Few Strong Storms Possible Sunday And Again Late This Week... ...Hotter And Drier Weather For Early To Middle Of This Week... ...Threat Of Rip Currents East Coast Beaches For Most Of Next Week... .SHORT TERM... This Afternoon through Sunday: High pressure at the surface and aloft will prevail through tonight. Relatively dry conditions are anticipated with somewhat limited convection based on South Florida standards for late August. That said, still expect lake and sea breeze collisions to lead to scattered coverage for the Lake region and interior into this evening, with a few nocturnal showers over the local waters. With less convection comes warmer temperatures, and a Heat Advisory remains in effect for Glades County through 5 PM this evening. Make sure to pace yourself and take breaks if you plan on outdoor activities. For Sunday forecast models suggest a slightly better push of low to mid level moisture into the area. With good surface heating and cooling temperatures aloft lapse rates should steepen markedly during the afternoon. And while the environment won't be overly moist for robust convective development couldn't rule out a stronger storm or two during the afternoon and evening, with the best focus over the Everglades and Lake Okeechobee regions. Otherwise warm temperatures prevail once again with afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s. Heat Index readings could again near advisory criteria over western interior areas during the afternoon and evening. .LONG TERM... (Sunday Night Through Middle Of This Work Week)... High pressure over the Western Atlantic waters will continue to strengthen and extend into the Florida Peninsula through most of the upcoming work week. This will keep the moderate easterly wind flow in place over South Florida through most of the upcoming work week. The deeper moisture that will be moving through South Florida on Sunday will be exiting the region Sunday night into the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time, the Saharan air mass over the Bahamas and the Central Atlantic waters will be working westward on the easterly wind flow and into South Florida. This Saharan air mass will remain in place over South Florida through most of the upcoming work week keeping the POPs on the low side with PWAT values in the 1.5 to 1.6 inch range. These PWAT Values will be lowest 10 percentile range for this time of year. That been said, there will still be isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms each afternoon especially where the sea breezes collide each afternoon over the interior and west coast metro areas. Therefore, POPs will be in the 20 to 30 percent range with the highest POPs over the NW interior areas of South Florida. Haze wording will also be added into the forecast for most of this upcoming work week due to the Saharan Air mass. Highs each day next week will be in the mid to upper 90s over most of South Florida, except lower to mid 90s east coast metro areas. However, the Saharan air mass will allow for the the dew points to be lower this week mainly in lower 70s over most areas except mid 70s over the east coast metro areas. This will keep the heat index readings in the lower 100s over the east coast metro areas and into the mid 100s over rest of the region. Will continue to monitor the heat indices through out the week to see if a heat advisories will be needed across portions of South Florida. Lows will also be warmer than average for this time of year with mid to upper 70s over the interior and west coast metro areas to around 80 over the east coast metro areas. With the lows only getting down to around 80 at night over the east coast metro areas, the heat index readings at night will only fall down into the mid to upper 80s western east coast metro areas to around 90 over the east coastal areas of South Florida. (Late This Work Week)... The long range models are showing a TUTT low developing over the Western Atlantic waters moving westward into South Florida. This TUTT low will allow for some cooler air aloft to work into the region as the Saharan Air mass move slowly northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. This will allow for some of the storms late this week to become strong with gusty winds, hail, and frequent lightning strikes. Will continue to monitor this TUTT low in the long range models for late this week to see how this will affect South Florida's weather for late this week. && .AVIATION(18Z TAFS)... Dry/VFR for most areas into this evening with showers/storms generally inland from the terminals. Possible exception could be KAPF with VCSH/VCTS possible. Onshore winds into this evening around 10-12 kt, becoming light at 5 kt or less after sunset. && .MARINE... Mostly favorable conditions should prevail. Some northerly swell from Henri may linger over the Atlantic waters this evening, but the greatest effects should remain well north of our area. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible at times with the typical hazards of locally higher seas and winds in and around convection. && .BEACHES An onshore wind regime will maintain a rip current threat for the Palm Beaches this weekend. This risk may expand to the remainder of the Atlantic beaches by early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 92 80 92 / 30 40 20 30 West Kendall 78 93 78 93 / 30 40 20 30 Opa-Locka 79 93 79 92 / 30 40 20 30 Homestead 78 90 78 91 / 30 30 20 30 Fort Lauderdale 80 91 81 90 / 30 30 20 30 N Ft Lauderdale 79 91 81 90 / 30 30 10 30 Pembroke Pines 79 92 79 91 / 30 40 20 30 West Palm Beach 78 93 79 91 / 20 40 20 30 Boca Raton 80 91 80 90 / 20 30 10 30 Naples 77 92 78 91 / 20 40 30 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ063. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Beaches/Marine...SPM Sunday Night through Saturday...BNB Visit us at weather.gov/miami Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwsmiami www.twitter.com/nwsmiami