028 
FXUS63 KGID 211801
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
101 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

High clouds from earlier thunderstorms have exited the forecast area 
and skies are mostly clear across the area. To the south of the 
forecast area there are a few showers or sprinkles that have been 
trying to work to the north. 

Starting off the morning will have to add some low PoPs for the 
potential of a few mainly sprinkles, but there has been just a few 
isolated lightning strikes in the precipitation to the south. Expect 
that most of the precipitation will be ending as it works further 
north, so have kept it in north central Kansas before daybreak. 

A surface high moves through the forecast area today. This should 
keep mainly clear skies and light winds through the day. Highs will 
be a little cooler with upper 70s to upper 80s across the area. 
Kansas will be the warmest as Nebraska should remain mainly around 
80 degrees. 

A weak upper level wave moves into the area this evening. There will 
be a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly late tonight. The 
wave moves through, but is followed by another on Sunday. This wave 
is a little stronger and there is a better chance for thunderstorms, 
but the best chances will be in the Nebraska portion of the area. 
The thunderstorm chances will be best during the afternoon and 
evening. There will be ample CAPE and shear to sustain 
thunderstorms, but during the evening, the CAPE moves off to the 
east and thunderstorms should come to an end. 

Temperatures warm back up into the 90s for Sunday and continue to 
warm through Tuesday. Highs will be around 100 degrees for portions 
of north central Kansas by Tuesday afternoon. With the humidity, the 
heat index values will be around 100 degrees for both Monday and 
Tuesday for portions of the area, mainly in the south and east. 

Expect there to be a few mainly weak upper level waves that move 
through the area Monday into Tuesday. This will likely be the best 
chance for some dry conditions, but there are some small chances on 
and off for portions of the area. Timing these weak waves will be a 
challenge and will have to watch the waves. The best chances at this 
point appear to be afternoon and evening time frames. 

A weak wave and cold front move through the area Tuesday night into 
Wednesday. The front is very slow to move through and really does 
not get through the forecast area until later in the day Wednesday. 
Models have some differences in the timing of the front which also 
makes it difficult to determine the location of the weak front. 
Temperatures will be cooler on Wednesday and there will be a chance 
for some showers and thunderstorms. The better chance will be 
Wednesday night into Thursday. There is another upper level wave 
that moves through Thursday night into Friday and there is a chance 
for thunderstorms along with the wave. 


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

The north wind early this afternoon will remain light and
gradually swing around to southeasterly by early this evening. VFR
conditions will continue throughout the TAF valid period. There is
a small chance for thunderstorms late tonight through Sunday
morning and then increasing chances for thunderstorms just beyond
the end of the TAF valid period Sunday afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JCB
AVIATION...Wesely