016 
FXUS63 KABR 211756
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1256 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

18z aviation discussion updated below. 

UPDATE Issued at 1108 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

Mostly sunny skies will remain through the day with breezy
west to northwest winds diminishing from west to east quickly 
through the afternoon. Cooler highs in the 70s look good by late
afternoon.  

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

As an upper trough exits this morning and high pressure builds in at 
the sfc, winds will diminish across the area. Temperatures will 
remain cooler than average today with highs only in the 70s and dry 
conditions are expected. 

Winds will increase out of the southeast tonight ahead of a front 
and upper trough that will sweep from west to east on Sunday. While 
these features will bring showers and thunderstorms, some of which 
may be strong to severe, it appears as though the precip will be 
concentrated right around the front and pass swiftly. A drier and 
warmer airmass will build in quickly behind it with temperatures 
rising into the 90s across south central SD. The drier, westerly mid 
level air will also help to shunt the precip off to the east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

Cold front and upper wave is just about out of the CWA to open 
things up Sunday evening, taking convection with it. Upper flow 
in the wake of the system becomes zonal with a west southwest 
orientation and subtle ridging leading to dry conditions Monday, 
though a quick moving wave Tuesday will provide for the 
opportunity of additional convection. Models start to diverge 
enough that its difficult to nail down additional opportunities 
for moisture thereafter, with the next system potentially late 
this the week, however guidance POPs are again probably overdone. 
This more active pattern will help with moisture opportunities, 
but at the same time give us temperatures closer to seasonal for 
late August.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Surface high pressure will build quickly east today with west to 
northwest winds decreasing and turning around quickly to the 
southeast tonight. A short wave trough moving in from the west will 
bring surface pressure falls along with increasing south southeast 
winds tonight. LLWS is expected at PIR and MBG for a time late 
tonight/early Sunday with south winds up to 40 knots to 2000 feet. 
This short wave trough will also bring showers and storms with it 
which are expected to affect all airports at or in the vicinity 
except ATY by the end of the taf period. 

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Mohr