069 
FXUS61 KILN 211748
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
148 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will lead to fair weather today. A 
disturbance will interact with an unstable airmass to keep a low
chance for precipitation Sunday. An upper level ridge will 
offer dry and warm conditions Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cumulus will persist through the rest of the afternoon. Cannot
rule out a shower or even storm in central Ohio where cumulus is
a little more robust. Forecast highs still on track. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Diurnally driven clouds to clear with the loss of heating this
evening. Light winds and clear skies will again lead to patchy
fog development tonight -- especially in valley locations.
Expect lows in the mid and upper 60s; 

A weak front and an axis of marginal instability will move into
the west Sunday afternoon. There may be enough forcing to lead
to showers and a few thunderstorms. Have limited pops to low
chance category in the western counties and slight chance east. 
Highs look to range from the mid 80s west to the upper 80s east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid-level high pressure will be centered over the central plains 
states on Sunday night as a weak disturbance drops east of 
the high down the Mississippi River valley. This disturbance misses 
the Ohio Valley to the west, providing warm and dry weather to start 
the work week.

The next disturbance may clip the forecast area on Tuesday, allowing 
the return of a few isolated storms during the afternoon. Meanwhile, 
a more significant trough begins to shift east through southern 
Canada, flattening the ridge and allowing better chances of storms 
and a frontal system to affect the region Wednesday through the end 
of the week.

Temperatures continue above normal through at least Wednesday as 
highs increase to around 90 degrees. Some moderation in temperatures 
returns late in the week with increased precipitation chances and 
decreasing heights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cumulus across the region will dissipate with the loss of
heating and then redevelop late in the period. Winds will be
light and variable and this will favor the development of
visibility restrictions again overnight in the usually more fog
prone terminals. 

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Hogue
AVIATION...