105 
FXUS63 KSGF 211727 AAA
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

Convection was starting to sag further south into the CWA as of 2
AM, mainly in our northern 1/3 of the CWA so far. Very high
precipitable water values was aiding in very efficient rainfall
rates. Wind gusts have been consistently in the 30 to 40 mph range
at the highest, so it's looking like more of a heavy rain and
localized flooding event for the remainder of the night and part
of Saturday morning. The convection which was lined up northeast
to southwest over eastern KS has started to shift more southeast
in the past hour, so the progression is expected to continue
southeast through the area early this morning. Training over the
same area will likely produce some localized flooding, but this
should start becoming more progressive and limit the areal extent
of the flood risk. CAMS models are fairly consistent in bringing
this through by mid morning with little additional development
thereafter. Have some concerns with putting in no pops after this
moves through with decent instability expected, especially in the
southern portion of the CWA, so will hold on to some lower pops
there. Temperatures today will range from the upper 80s to low 90s
with heat index values over the southern CWA from the mid 90s to
around 103.

Models show the warm front will begin to lift back to the north
tonight as a secondary upper wave in the Rockies lifts northeast
into the northern plains. Could see some convection along the
front as it moves north tonight, but will keep coverage in the 30s
and less, with the best coverage in the southwest CWA. Very mild
temperatures are expected tonight, especially in the southwest
after the front lifts back to the north, with lows in the low to
mid 70s. Mid 60s are expected up in central MO towards the VIH
area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

On Sunday, the warm front will have lifted north of the area and
an upper level ridge will begin building over the region. This
will begin to increase the heat and humidity over the area for the
first half of the week. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be
in the low to mid 90s with mid to upper 90s for the Monday through
Wednesday time period. Models continue to show a strong signal for
this and we have fairly high confidence in these temperatures.
Heat index values will be consistently in the 100 to 108 range in
the Monday to Wednesday time period and we'll likely need a heat
advisory during this time period.

Models show some inconsistency by Thursday and Friday and get a
bit cluttered with weak energy within the upper ridge axis. Low
end pops are in the forecast for now and slightly lower
temperatures, but still on the warm side by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

VFR conditions are expected for the rest of today. Mid and high
clouds will continue to move through with clearing expected
tonight. There is a small chance for a shower or storm at BBG this
evening however its too low to include in the TAF at this time.
Patchy fog development is likely tonight, especially at BBG. Winds
will turn more northerly later today and tonight, and then turning
back to the east on Sunday. 

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Burchfield