032 
FXUS65 KTWC 211626
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
928 AM MST Sat Aug 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Drier weather is expected through tomorrow before 
isolated showers and storms work back in early next week. Best 
chances will remain over the higher elevations and across areas 
south and east of Tucson through mid week. Temperatures will 
continue to climb over the coming days with triple digits possible 
for the lower deserts by early next week.

&&
.UPDATE.. Another quiet day is in store with relatively drier air in 
place. Moisture is expected to start slowly increasing over the next 
couple of days as flow shifts to the south. PWAT from this morning's 
upper air sounding came in at right around an inch which is showing 
a slight dry bias on the latest hi-res models. Any convection this 
afternoon looks to be confined to the higher elevations of the 
Chiricahuas which should be isolated in coverage. Otherwise, temps 
will jump another 2-6 degrees from yesterday's highs under mostly 
sunny skies. No significant forecast updates needed for the near 
term period. 

&&
.DISCUSSION...The main weather story will be the heat this coming 
week as temperatures soar to readings above average for this time of 
year. That said, elevated heat related risks will return to the 
lower deserts especially on Wednesday and Thursday. The recent drier 
weather in combination with a ridge of high pressure strengthening 
over the central United States and expanding westward will be 
responsible for this next heatwave. Headlines for heat will likely 
be forthcoming as Wednesday and Thursday draw closer. Otherwise, 
models were still showing some increase in moisture which will 
result in limited thunderstorm activity through next week. 

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 22/12Z.
Clear skies thru 21/17Z and then again aft 22/05Z. FEW-SCT clouds at 
10k-14k ft MSL (locally BKN along the New Mexico state line) between 
21/17Z and 22/05Z, with a slight chance of -SHRA/-TSRA. SFC wind 
generally less than 12 kts and favoring a SLY/SWLY direction in the 
afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other 
times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather is expected today, with just a slight 
chance of a few showers and/or a thunderstorm in far eastern Cochise 
county. A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the White 
Mountains and far eastern portions of southeast Arizona on Sunday. 
Precipitation chances spread westward early to mid next week when 
isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms will 
be possible in areas south and east of Tucson, as well as across the 
higher terrain. Temperatures will be on the rise through midweek, 
with triple digits possible for the lower elevations. 20-foot winds 
will generally be less than 15 mph when not influenced by 
thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$


Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson