671 
FXUS64 KMRX 211532
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1132 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Continuing to watch conditions to the west as heavy rain falls
over Middle TN along a stationary moisture axis with pwats in
excess of 2.25" per OHX RAOB and model progs. Guidance does
indicate this axis of moisture should advect slightly east through
the day as shortwave energy rounds the longwave upper
trough/vortex in association with modest Q Vector convergence
around H3. With that, expecting convection to increase in coverage
through the remainder of the morning/afternoon along/west of I75.
Will need to monitor the southern valley/plateau for
moderate/heavy rainfall accumulations and possible localized flash
flooding. Otherwise, the central/northern valley should remain dry
for the most part. As for the fcst itself, did increase pops south
of I40 to account for latest CAMs consensus and current radar
trends. No other sig changes needed/made at this time.

CDG

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Lingering fog at TYS is expected to dissipate relatively early
this morning. At CHA, VCSH are expected later this morning with
potential reduction to MVFR. This also comes with the potential 
for afternoon TSRA, which could lead to more intermittent 
reductions to MVFR. Otherwise, TYS and TRI are both expected to 
stay VFR through the day with light and largely variable winds at 
all sites. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm is possible near 
TYS or TRI, but chances look fairly low. Heading into tonight, fog
is possible again late in the night/early in the morning, 
especially at CHA where daytime rain is most likely.

BW


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             82  71  90  71  93 /  70  30  30   0  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  86  70  90  69  92 /  20  20  20   0  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       86  69  90  69  91 /  20  20  20   0  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              87  65  88  65  90 /  10  10  10   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$