986 FXUS64 KHGX 211143 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 643 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 .AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]... A couple of spotty MVFR cigs have lingered at CLL/SGR this morning, though any cig restrictions should dissipate over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to persist through the duration of the TAF period. With surface high pressure dominant over the eastern Gulf and drier air in place across SE TX, today should be largely if not completely precipitation-free with little in the way of cloud cover. Winds will increase to near 10 knots out of the south/southeast this afternoon, becoming light and variable after sunset. Cady && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 328 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Today Through Sunday Night]... Very little change to the overall pattern is expected through the remainder of the weekend with SE TX continuing to sit under an upper ridge while broad surface high pressure remains dominant over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. As a result, hot and humid conditions with relatively low chances of precipitation remain the story. Can't rule out a few streamer showers offshore and along the immediate coastline this morning, but any development will be inhibited by more limited moisture availability than in recent days (PWs of around 1.5 in). Have tapered back PoPs as a result, only leaving a slight chance during the morning hours along the coast. Diurnal thunderstorm development will be further limited by the continued presence of low-level capping, which model soundings do not show diminishing through the weekend. Tomorrow should develop similarly to today with a very limited chance of showers along the coast during the morning but otherwise a hot but rain-free day. Heat remains a concern this weekend. While slightly drier air over the area has limited afternoon dew points slightly, increasing high temps in the upper 90s will push heat index values close to the advisory threshold of 108. While we don't anticipate issuing an advisory at this time, heat safety precautions should nonetheless be taken if undertaking any outdoor activities this weekend. If heading outside, remember to stay hydrated, apply sunscreen, and wear lightweight clothing. Cady .LONG TERM...[Monday through Saturday] A sprawling upper level ridge of high pressure will extend across much of southern plains on Monday. The center of the ridge will be near the Arklatex with subsidence prevailing over much of East Texas. Moisture profiles look dry but PW values do increase to 1.80 inches by 00z Tuesday. Convective temps are in the upper 90's with weak capping noted at 850 mb so have pulled any mention of rain due to the subsidence/capping. MaxT values should warm into the upper 90's to near 100 degrees as 850 mb temps range between 21.5C and 23.0C. On Tuesday, the upper level ridge will elongate from west to east from the southern Rockies to the Ozarks. The ridge is displaced just far enough to the north to allow a few weak disturbances to undercut the ridge and approach SE TX from the east. PW values increase to between 1.90 and 2.00 inches by 00z with convective temps around 95 degrees. 850 mb temps cool slightly as 500 mb heights fall and 850 mb temps cool but MaxT values should still warm into the upper 90s. Will maintain 20 PoPs for Tuesday and these will go up/down depending on where the upper ridge is located. Heat Index values both Monday and Tuesday will need to be watched as dew points don't mix out efficiently and HI values will flirt with Heat Advisory criteria. At this time, HI values will range from 105-110 degrees. The upper ridge is progged to weaken on Wednesday as 500 heights fall to around 590 dm. A weak disturbance will move into the area from the east and bring higher rain chances back to the area on Wednesday. Convective temps fall back into the lower 90's with PW values climbing back to around 2.00 inches. Conditions look similar on Thursday with PWs near 2.00 and convective temps even cooler, somewhere between 87-92 degrees. Rain chances will linger into Friday as yet another disturbance moves into the region. PW values reach 2.15 inches and 850 mb temps cool to around 18C. Convective temps remain in the upper 80's so scattered shra/tsra are again possible. MaxT values will also cool with the cooler 850 temps and clouds/precip. MaxT should top out in the lower 90's. Looks a bit warmer on Saturday as 850 temps warm but moisture level look sufficient for a continued chance for showers. 43 .MARINE... Swells propagating into the coastal waters will lead to elevated seas in the offshore waters and rough surf. Will maintain the SCA for the offshore waters as seas continue to range between 7-8 feet. Seas will relax this afternoon as the wave/swell period decreases. There is a high risk for rip currents on Gulf facing beaches as the swells propagate to the coast. Beachgoers should use extreme caution when venturing into the water. Will maintain the Beach Hazard Statement for today. High pressure over the Gulf will allow for a light to moderate onshore flow through Monday night. On Tuesday, high pressure will develop over Georgia and low pressure will develop in the southern Gulf. This will allow an E-SE flow to develop and persist into next weekend. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 97 75 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 97 76 98 76 99 / 10 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 93 82 93 82 92 / 20 0 0 0 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this evening for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM. && $$