054 
FXUS63 KABR 210937
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
437 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

As an upper trough exits this morning and high pressure builds in at 
the sfc, winds will diminish across the area. Temperatures will 
remain cooler than average today with highs only in the 70s and dry 
conditions are expected. 

Winds will increase out of the southeast tonight ahead of a front 
and upper trough that will sweep from west to east on Sunday. While 
these features will bring showers and thunderstorms, some of which 
may be strong to severe, it appears as though the precip will be 
concentrated right around the front and pass swiftly. A drier and 
warmer airmass will build in quickly behind it with temperatures 
rising into the 90s across south central SD. The drier, westerly mid 
level air will also help to shunt the precip off to the east.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

Cold front and upper wave is just about out of the CWA to open 
things up Sunday evening, taking convection with it. Upper flow 
in the wake of the system becomes zonal with a west southwest 
orientation and subtle ridging leading to dry conditions Monday, 
though a quick moving wave Tuesday will provide for the 
opportunity of additional convection. Models start to diverge 
enough that its difficult to nail down additional opportunities 
for moisture thereafter, with the next system potentially late 
this the week, however guidance POPs are again probably overdone. 
This more active pattern will help with moisture opportunities, 
but at the same time give us temperatures closer to seasonal for 
late August.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through Saturday, although a few 
lower clouds are expected across northern South Dakota overnight. 
Gusty winds are also expected through Saturday morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Wise