258 FXUS63 KDLH 210922 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 422 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 .DISCUSSION...(Today through Friday) Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Summary: More seasonable temperatures are expected over the coming week with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms. Low pressure was located near Winnipeg early this morning with a cold front extending across central Minnesota to another area of low pressure in southwestern Minnesota. An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms was observed ahead of this cold front from northeastern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. This activity was weakening as it pushed to the east. As the low lifts to the northeast today, breezy westerly winds are expected across the Northland with gusts to 20 to 30 mph possible. A few showers may linger along the International Border this morning, but mainly dry conditions are expected. High pressure will quickly build in for this afternoon and evening bringing clearing skies and diminishing winds. Highs will be much cooler today with readings in the 60s and 70s which is much more seasonable than we have seen the past week or so. Dry conditions will then prevail through most of the daylight hours Sunday as the high slides off to the east. Southerly return flow on the backside of the high will bring in warmer temperatures ahead of a cold front moving across the Northern Plains. This will lead to near normal highs in the middle 70s across most of the region. Heading into the evening hours, low pressure across southern Manitoba will lift northeast and bring a cold front across Minnesota. This will bring chances for showers and a few thunderstorms to the Northland for Sunday evening and Sunday night with the best chances expected along and north of the Iron Range. Not really expecting much in terms of strong to severe storms with this cold front with a dry layer around 850mb, anemic shear and poor instability with model soundings showing a couple hundred Joules of CAPE at best. High pressure will build in behind this cold front before another front traverses the Upper Midwest in the Tuesday-Wednesday period. The pattern looks to stay active with another wave bringing rainfall chances to end the week as well. Highs Monday and Tuesday will trend warmer in the 70s and 80s before pulling back to near normal to slightly below normal for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 A cold front will continue to work across the region overnight. Rain chances have ended at BRD but will persist at the remainder of the terminals over the next 3 to 6 hours. Dry conditions are expected by daybreak. Showers and thunderstorms may bring periods of MVFR conditions or perhaps lower and have targeted the most likely time with TEMPO periods. Strong or severe storms are no longer expected. MVFR ceilings will arrive with the front and slowly lift through the morning hours. Winds will remain breezy through the day Saturday from the northwest from 20 to 30 knots before diminishing around sunset. A few showers may linger during the morning at INL, but confidence on this remains low. && .MARINE... Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 A cold front will move across western Lake Superior this morning. A few showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will be possible through 9AM with dry conditions prevailing for the remainder of today and tonight. Breezy southwesterly winds this morning will turn westerly behind the cold front at 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots through the afternoon and into this evening. Winds are then expected to quickly diminish late this evening as high pressure builds in from the west. These winds will lead to waves of 3 to 6 feet along the North Shore from the Grand Marais area to Grand Portage and along the Bayfield Peninsula and the Apostle Islands today before subsiding this evening. Small Craft Advisories are in effect due to the winds and waves. Sunday morning will see light and variable winds before turning easterly in the afternoon as the high shifts to the east. This will lead to increasing winds during the afternoon hours to 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots before diminishing Sunday night. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 69 51 74 59 / 10 0 0 70 INL 64 47 77 57 / 30 0 10 90 BRD 70 49 78 59 / 0 0 10 60 HYR 73 47 77 57 / 10 0 0 50 ASX 77 50 77 57 / 10 0 0 50 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ141>147-150. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-148. && $$ DISCUSSION...BJH AVIATION...BJH MARINE...BJH