924 
FXUS65 KLKN 210902
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
202 AM PDT Sat Aug 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A trough will bring thunderstorms and gusty winds to
the silver state today. This is causing critical fire weather
conditions for the northern portions of NV. Fair weather will 
return to the region on Sunday along with warmer temperatures 
which will last into the foreseeable future.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday. 

A will pass through NV today causing thunderstorms and gusty 
winds as it does so. The thunderstorms will mainly be northern 
and eastern NV today before tapering off during the evening and 
ending before Sunday morning. Activity will be high based with a 
dry subcloud layer and inverted V soundings. PWAT values of around
0.50"-0.80", highest in eastern Elko and northeast White Pine 
counties. In addition, storm motions will likely be quick at 
around 20-30kts. This would tend to favor mainly dry storms with 
gusty downdraft/outflow winds that can be strong at times. The 
ambient winds will be breezy to windy with the passage of the 
frontal system. Sunday will see a dry southwest flow set up across
the silver state. This will produce a period of fair weather 
along with warm temperature across the region. 

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through next Friday

Monday through to Friday: A quiet stretch can be expected for the
long term. Models agree Nevada will be under Southwesterly flow 
aloft between a upper level trough over coastal British Columbia 
and a strengthening southern plains ridge of high pressure. During
the week this ridge will build into the desert southwest, 
allowing for heights to slowly rise and push temperatures back 
above normal for NV. Temperatures: Slow warming trend prevails 
for the period will have high temperatures starting in the upper 
70s to upper 80s warming into the middle 80s to middle 90s by the 
end of the week. Lows will also slowly rise from the mid to upper 
40s to the upper 50’s.


&&

.AVIATION...Scattered high based showers and thunderstorms 
today. A few showers/storms could approach all taf sites except 
TPH. Light winds early this morning become breezy by the late
afternoon hours with south to southwest winds of 15-20kts gusting
to around 30kts. Haze and smoke are expected to return with MVFR 
skies possible. Mostly sunny on Sunday with lighter winds. 


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Critical fire conditions from scattered mainly 
dry thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds expected across 
northern Nevada today. Breezy to windy conditions also expected 
region wide outside of any convection due to tighter gradient with
frontal passage, but should remain below critical thresholds. Fair
weather returns to all zones late today which will then last into
the foreseeable future. In addition a dry and warming trend 
will start Sunday and through next week.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this 
evening for W Elko County, N Eureka and Lander Counties N of I80.

Red Flag Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 5 PM PDT this 
afternoon for Humboldt County-Quinn.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this 
evening for Central Elko County-Eastern Elko County.

&&

$$

99/98/96/99