392 FXUS62 KKEY 210831 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 431 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 .DISCUSSION... Relatively more active tonight than last night across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Most of the showers and thunderstorms have been firing up across the deep Gulf waters. However, recently some showers did develop in the vicinity of the lower Keys and in fact a brief shower managed to move over the Key West Airport. Otherwise, the remaining Keys have been precip free under mostly clear skies. Winds have been light out of the east and southeast between 5 and 10 mph with similar conditions being reporting across our marine observation sites. A surface high pressure sits across the Gulf of Mexico to our northwest. This high pressure is slowly becoming absorbed by a ridge axis extending westward from the Bermuda High currently across the central North Atlantic. As such winds are light and will remain as such through the weekend. As this ridge axis continues to build in across the region, additional moisture will gradually filter into the area. That said, there is no real features in the next 12 to 24 hours, therefore PoPs will remain slightly below climo. We continue to monitor an easterly wave that will move through Sunday. Given the deeper tropical moisture associated with this feature, will keep elevated PoPs, however, there will not be much in the way of any cyclonic curvature. As such, will continue to refrain from going as high as MOS guidance suggests at this time. As we go into early next week, a SAL plume looks to advect into the area. This would normally shutdown precip chances, however, at the same time, the Bermuda High will be strengthening. This will lead to an increase in winds and therefore allow for better low level moisture influx. For now will hold steady with climo PoPs. In addition, due to the strengthening of the high, expect breezy conditions to develop. Otherwise, no big features on the horizon in the extended. We may have a couple of weak easterly waves coming through Wednesday night into Thursday and again Friday but this far out, will hold onto only chance PoPs (30 percent) for now. && .MARINE... Light to gentle east to southeast breezes persist this morning across all of the Florida Keys coastal waters. Expect light to gentle breezes to prevail through tonight. Thereafter, breezes will be gradually freshening into early next week as the Bermuda High strengthens and expands west across Florida and the Florida Keys. By Monday evening, expect widespread moderate to fresh breezes. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines look likely at this time during this period. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH island terminals through today. Isolated showers are possible through the day, however uncertainty in proximity to terminals and timing has resulted in an omittance of VCSH for the time being. Otherwise light and variable winds will become southeast at 6 to 9 knots after sunrise. && .CLIMATE... In 1973, the daily record cold high temperature of 81 degrees was recorded. This is also tied for the coldest high temperature ever recorded in August. Temperature records date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 81 89 82 / 20 30 40 30 Marathon 91 82 91 83 / 20 30 40 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....Williams Data Acquisition.....Williams Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest