996 FXUS64 KOUN 210731 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 231 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to drift southeast across portions of north-central Oklahoma early this morning. This activity is expected to gradually dissipate through the morning as it moves off into eastern Oklahoma. This activity will produce an outflow boundary that move slowly south toward the I-40 corridor today. This boundary will act as a focus for another round of convection this afternoon into this evening. A very minor mid-level disturbance will move northeast out of Texas and into western Oklahoma later today. This will also aid in convective development across portions of central into northern Oklahoma. Although wind fields will remain relatively weak, sufficient instability will be present for a few strong updrafts that may result in a some strong to severe storms. Strong wind gusts as well as heavy rainfall will be the main hazards with these storms. Meanwhile, near and south of the boundary, especially from central into south-central and southeast Oklahoma, the combination of heat and humidity will result in heat indices that will likely exceed advisory criteria. Will issue a heat advisory for this area for the afternoon into the early evening hours. Some of the convection is expected to linger at least through the evening hours Saturday night before dissipating. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Upper ridge begins to take over and dominate the weather across the area by Sunday and this looks to continue through much of the following week with hot and humid conditions with very little chance of rainfall. There could be a few days where parts of the area approach heat advisory thresholds, especially central into eastern parts of the area. If Oklahoma City is going to hit the century mark this summer, Tuesday and Wednesday may have the best shots as the ridge sits overhead. GFS would suggest that perhaps the ridge breaks down by the end of the week into the following weekend, but the ridge remains dominate feature in the ECMWF a bit longer, until late next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Thunderstorms may enter north central Oklahoma early Saturday from southern Kansas. The resulting outflow boundary will turn winds northeast over this area with south winds over the southern two- thirds of Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon along the outflow boundary, but coverage is expected to be too low for inclusion in most TAFs. && .UPPER AIR... Issued at 139 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 No upper air flights are planned at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 93 74 94 73 / 30 40 0 0 Hobart OK 96 73 96 71 / 20 20 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 95 76 96 73 / 10 10 0 0 Gage OK 90 70 95 72 / 40 40 0 0 Ponca City OK 90 72 95 73 / 20 20 10 0 Durant OK 95 75 95 73 / 10 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...09