931 
FXUS63 KEAX 210544
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1244 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

.Discussion...
Issued at 232 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2021

Today and Tonight: 

In the short term forecast our main focus will be 
on tonight as a shortwave slides across the Northern Plains. Storms 
are expected to develop along an associated cold front across 
Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa this afternoon. This will slowly 
slide to the south reaching northwest Missouri after 6pm. Model 
soundings show ample CAPE values and at least some marginal shear 
ahead of the approaching front which should be enough to support 
some strong to severe storms as they slide south this evening. The 
main threat should be strong winds up to 60 mph, however some large 
hail is certainly possible as well in northwest Missouri where 
instability is highest. While training storms don't look likely, 
localized flash flooding is still a treat with storms producing 
heavy rainfall in some locations. The one caveat is that cloud
cover today has been more persistent that expected which could
somewhat limit how widespread any severe storms are.  As storms 
slide to the southeast, they should weaken some, but strong winds 
are still a possibility as storms approach the KC area around 
10pm. Storms will continue moving to the southeast overnight, 
exiting the area before sunrise on Saturday. 

The Weekend: 

Saturday looks to be mostly dry. After the passage of 
the cold front from Friday, we should see some brief relief from the 
heat with temperatures in the lower 80s across northern parts of the 
area, and mid 80s across the south. Unfortunately that won't last 
very long as high pressure and ridging starts to build over the 
southern and central Plains. This will allow for the return of 
southerly flow and hot temperatures starting Sunday. Sunday 
afternoon, highs look to be near 90 across much of the area. 

Next Week:

Heading into the work week, the heat looks to continue. A few precip 
chances expected during the mid week as a few waves pulse across the 
ridge. Despite that, temperatures around 90-95 degrees are 
expected each day next week. Additionally heat indices of 100 to 
105 will be possible. 

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2021

Strongest part of the line of thunderstorms has moved through the
terminals (KMCI/KMKC/KSTJ/KIXD) with visibility increasing and
winds decreasing. Winds may briefly be out of the northwest behind
the line of convection before returning to southwesterly. Once the
cold front moves through 11-13Z, winds will once again shift
around to northwesterly and remain from that direction through the
remainder of the period. Scattered showers with isolated
thunderstorms will linger through about 08-10Z before starting to
clear out.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...HB
Aviation...PietrychaP