215 FXUS65 KABQ 210543 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1143 PM MDT Fri Aug 20 2021 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Weak wind shift over ne NM to linger through 21Z before dissipating. Upper winds becoming sly with some increase in moisture over south central and se NM into ne NM where isolated to sct showers and tstms, some with gusty erratic outflow winds, are expected to develop aft 18Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MDT Fri Aug 20 2021... .SYNOPSIS... A dry and warm pattern will continue for much of the area through Saturday night. However, the chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase over parts of southern and eastern New Mexico by late Saturday, then farther north and west to the Interstate 40 corridor by Sunday. Monday will also feature showers and storms for central and western New Mexico. The forecast through much of next week is more uncertain as we await to see where the monsoon moisture plume sets up across the desert southwest. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... Radiosonde observations from this morning and last night revealed a prominent subsidence inversion between 600 and 400 mb, a stout cap that is precluding storm development today. Analysis of surrounding upper air data and satellite imagery indicate the upper low is ejecting into the northern Great Plains, leaving behind a moderate westerly flow aloft over NM that is certainly anomalous for late August. As the low crosses the Canadian border tonight it will eventually send a backdoor (east-to-west moving) cold front into NM. This front will enter the northeastern quadrant of NM, offering a brief window of gusty winds and perhaps some weak moisture and surface convergence as it meets up with prevailing southerly flow. Into the afternoon Saturday, surface winds will quickly veer southerly again across all of the eastern NM plains, and most of the remainder of the forecast area too for that matter. While surface dewpoints will only undergo modest rises (mostly in northeastern zones), the PWATs should rise on a more considerable magnitude with the south central mountains to the east central plains reaching 1.0 to 1.25 inch values. This will be a focus for scattered storms with a potential secondary area near and just to the east of the Sangre de Cristo mountains. A few sparse storms may try to fill in between and possibly over the Continental Divide, but rainfall efficiency would be lower with less moisture to work with. Otherwise temperatures on Saturday would run close to today’s readings. LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... The current plume of monsoon moisture draped across northern Mexico will continue lifting north into NM by Sunday as a large subtropical high builds over the south-central U.S. Models have been coming into better agreement w/ a brief, more traditional south to north monsoon plume Sunday. Deep layer southerly flow will allow PW values to rise to near 1.15" at KABQ and near 1.45" at KEPZ. Temps will be plenty warm enough to force convective development and model instability parameters are quite unstable. The subtropical high is expected to begin its westward extension toward NM by Monday, thus introducing the all-to-frequent subsidence factor to the equation. Nonetheless, there will still be abundant moisture and instability in place to allow at least isolated storms despite increasing subsidence. Unfortunately, by Tuesday and Wednesday a substantial extension of the upper ridge axis builds westward into NM. Temps are likely to warm closer to typical July readings w/ very little storm coverage. Models are still flip-flopping beyond Wednesday but there are hints emerging from extended guidance that increasing storm chances are on the horizon to end the week. 52/Guyer && .FIRE WEATHER... After being void of storms today, monsoon moisture will slowly begin to seep back into NM with isolated to scattered storms gradually revisiting. Fair humidity recoveries (50-60%) are expected tonight in central valleys with most other areas observing good to excellent recoveries (better than 60%). Moderate gusts of 20 to 30 mph will accompany a cold front in northeastern NM tonight with a general trend of light to moderate prevailing winds being commonplace thereafter (except near localized thunderstorm outflows). Thunderstorms this weekend into early next week not be all that numerous, and areas that receive wetting rainfall of 0.1 inch or more will tend to be localized or only scattered over central to eastern zones. Any storms that form west of the Continental Divide will be less efficient at producing appreciable rainfall rates with more spotty high terrain coverage, and much like has been observed thus far this season, the northwest plateau will likely see the persistent void of storms continue. Energy Release Components in the 70th to 80th percentiles are currently stretching across much of far northern NM along the CO border and this area could expand into more of the northwestern plateau and fringes of surrounding zones by late next week as fuels await more appreciable rainfall relief. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$