207 FXUS63 KGID 210524 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Hastings NE 1224 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 .DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 237 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 This afternoon and evening... A strong cold front is quickly tracking southeast across the forecast area this afternoon. As of 230 pm...this front has already passed southeast of the Tri-Cities resulting in cooler temperatures, less humidity, and breezy northwest winds. The cold front is expected to exit our southeastern counties around 6 pm this evening. Thunderstorms should form along this cold front between 5 and 7 pm and quickly develop into a broken line or line of storms primarily to the east of our forecast area. However, there is a small chance that the first few thunderstorms that develop along the front could form across our eastern most counties before quickly tracking east out of our forecast area. Severe weather is possible along and ahead of the front with any thunderstorms that develop. Again this severe weather threat is primarily east of our forecast area. Saturday... This will be a beautiful day between weather systems with dry conditions and high temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80 across southern Nebraska, and 80s over north central Kansas. Sunday... The next shortwave upper trough will track across the northern and central plains during the day on Sunday. This will bring at least a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms back to the forecast area. The upper trough will bring with it stronger winds aloft to create favorable wind shear, while return southerly flow will allow for increasing low level moisture and increasing instability. Will need to keep an eye out for several severe thunderstorms by late afternoon and evening. It will also warm up with highs back around 90 over southern Nebraska to the mid 90s over northern Kansas. Monday... The 12Z ECMWF brings another weak upper wave through that appears weaker than the Sunday wave, but could be enough for some isolated thunderstorms again by Monday afternoon and evening. These slight chances in our current forecast may need to be expanded and increased with ECMWF is correct. The main thing is that it will continue to be hot with highs in the 90s. Tuesday through Friday... The overall pattern will be an upper ridge of high pressure to our south across the southern plains and weak shortwaves tracking across the northern plains. We could be the battle ground between the souther moisture and northern waves on a few of these days primarily Wednesday through Friday when we will see at least some chance for thunderstorms. Overall it will be a warm period with highs in the 90s on Tuesday and then mainly 80s across Nebraska and 90s over northern Kansas Wednesday through the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 A surface high is expected to move through the terminals during the TAF period. Winds will be mainly light, but are expected to be a little variable. KEAR is more likely to see a wind change from north to east to southeast through the period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...JCB