545 
FXUS64 KLZK 210508 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1208 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021

.AVIATION...Updated w/ a discussion for the 21/06Z TAFs

VFR condns are anticipated to prevail through the fcst PD...Main
target of opportunity remains on precip potential for Nrn
terminals pending the evolution of a TS complex moving through Ern
KS this AM. For now, have kept mentions of VCTS beginning Sat
morning across the N, w/ TEMPO TSRA. Later in the PD, another
round of development remains possible across S/Ern terminals
pending movement and placement of outflow bndries from dissipating
morning convection. As such, kept mentions of VCSH and PROB30s at
Cntrl and S/Ern terminals to account for this potential late in
the PD. Winds are expected to shift from Srly to become N/Wrly
over Nrn terminals, and W-S/Wrly at Srn terminals.

/232/

&&


PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 315 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021)
SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

After a cloudy start to the day, clouds have been dcrsg fm the SW 
this aftn over most of the FA. Sctd convection was confined to 
mainly N AR at mid aftn, assocd with a weak upr impulse movg acrs 
the region. Have trended near term PoPs based on this activity contg 
to move to the E thru the early evening. 

Hot and humid weather conds wl prevail as we move into the weekend. 
High pressure aloft wl gradually bld into the region fm the S, with 
far Nrn and Ern AR staying on the periphery of this feature. This 
scenario wl allow a weak CDFNT is fcst apch N AR Sat, eventually 
movg into parts of N AR late Sat night and Sun. This wl keep 
convective chcs in the fcst thru much of the weekend, with the 
higher PoPs mentioned in the vcnty of the sfc bndry.

High temps wl sloly creep up in the coming days. Aftn heat index 
values wl apch advy criteria over parts of our Ern FA for an hour or 
two Sat aftn. Have opted to hold off an any headlines for now on 
Sat, but expect a Heat Advisory for most locations Sun.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night through Friday

By late Sunday, a ridge of high pressure will be in place across the 
southern US with a SWT moving ENE across the northern Plains and an 
upper level low across the ENE US. The upper level ridge will slowly 
shift westward over the period, with short waves traveling along the 
northern US.

Persistent surface high pressure off the east coast will keep 
southerly flow across the SSE US. Moisture levels will remain 
sufficient for air mass showers and thunderstorms to develop. Best 
chances for convection will be towards the end of the period (after 
Wed afternoon) as the upper ridge shifts westward, and upper level 
subsidence weakens. Under high pressure, with southerly flow, 
temperatures will remain above average through next week.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Aviation...232