023 
FXUS64 KMEG 210447
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1147 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

.UPDATE...


06Z Aviation Update Below


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 724 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021/ 

UPDATE...Evening Update.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the Midsouth
and pose a threat of localized flooding. Temperatures remain in 
the 80s across most of the area with overnight lows expected in 
the low to middle 70s. Showers should decrease in coverage over 
the next few hours but may increase in coverage prior to sunrise 
as a weak trough moves across Missouri. It will be a very tricky 
temperature forecast tomorrow as ongoing showers and thunderstorms
continue. Rain free areas may spike near 90 degrees while areas 
where rain is nearly continuous may remain in the low 80s. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 641 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021/ 

Skies are mostly cloudy across the Mid-South this afternoon with
temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move across mainly
eastern sections of the Mid-South at this time.

By this evening, much of the current shower and thunderstorm
activity will have ended. A cold front will move into northern
Missouri tonight. Thunderstorms that develop ahead of this front
are expected to reach northern sections of the Mid-South
overnight. Temperatures will be seasonally warm tonight with lows
Saturday morning in the low to mid 70s.

As the cold front drops into southwest and central Missouri on
Saturday, the chance for thunderstorms will increase across the
region. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible across much of the
Mid-South. Temperatures will be on the warm side but still below
normal with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Some locations in
the western half of the Mid-South could see heat index values
above 105 on Saturday but with the possibility of thunderstorms
keeping temperatures lower than forecast, will hold off on issuing
a Heat Advisory at this time.

As the cold front moves closer to the Mid-South from the north
Saturday night, there will still be a chance of thunderstorms. The
front should move into the Mid-South and fall apart on Sunday
leaving a chance of thunderstorms for mainly southern and eastern
sections of the region. Heat index value should reach at or above
105 degrees across most of the Mid-South so a Heat Advisory will
likely be needed then.

Dry weather will return to the Mid-South for Sunday night with no
rain expected through Tuesday morning. It will remain quite humid
for both Monday and Tuesday with heat index values remaining above
105 degrees across much of the region both days. Some afternoon
thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday over far eastern sections of
the region.

Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday and
Thursday across much of the Mid-South. Another cold front will
approach the region from the north Thursday night and next Friday
with more scattered thunderstorms expected to move into the
region.

ARS


&& 


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions to start out. Patchy fog is possible at JBR and 
TUP and may reduce vsbys to MVFR to IFR. Showers and thunderstorms
expected to develop in the morning through the evening hours and
could reduce conditions to MVFR. Winds WSW 4-8kts. 

SMW


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$