980 
FXUS62 KKEY 210220
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1020 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021

.DISCUSSION...

The BYX WSR-88D is free from rain echoes this evening, with the
evening sounding largely maintaining the total column moisture
from this morning. There was a slight vertical redistribition of
the moisture with the 850 mb level drying and the 700 mb level
slightly moistening. Buoyancy was similar to this morning,
although boundaries are scarce outside of any residuals from this
afternoon's wet cloud line across the lower Keys. UWISC-CIMMS
Mimic precipitable water estimates indicated values near 1.9
inches traversing slowly westward over the Straits, and it is a
matter time before convective processes resume during the early
morning hours. HRRR guidance indicated a later onset near sunrise
whereas experimental Caribbean-domain HRRR indicated more generous
development initiating an hour or two before sunrise.

While earlier tempted to reduce rain chances, believe the onset
will likely be simply closer to the end of the overnight period.
No change to the light east to southeast winds over the islands.

&&

.MARINE...
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. For overnight, light
east to southeast breezes are expected. Waters will begin mostly
rain-free, with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms as well 
developing along short towering cumulus lines evolving during the
early morning hours. Continuing with the previous synopsis, high 
pressure extending from the Western Atlantic across the Florida 
Peninsula will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast 
breezes Saturday through Monday. Breezes will freshen Monday 
night and Tuesday as the Bermuda high pressure system strengthens.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. Surface winds 
will be light out of the east through the overnight.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...JR
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....KR

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