269 
FXUS65 KFGZ 192129
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
229 PM MST Thu Aug 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue near
the Arizona and Utah border late this afternoon and evening. 
Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for much of the area. 
Dry conditions and a warming trend will begin across northern 
Arizona Friday, and will continue through the weekend.

Monday through Wednesday, another monsoonal pattern begins to
develop. Low chances for thunderstorms will develop each afternoon 
over the White Mountains, with a gradual increase in afternoon 
thunderstorm chances westward along the higher terrain through 
mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper low currently centered over the Idaho, 
Wyoming, and Utah border is generating dry conditions and breezy 
southwesterly winds across northern Arizona. Low chances for 
afternoon thunderstorms will continue to exist near the AZ/UT 
border later this afternoon and evening where the greatest upper 
level support will reside.

By Friday, dry conditions are forecast areawide as a baggy trough
sets up off the California coast producing dry southwesterly flow
aloft. This feature should keep dry conditions over northern
Arizona through the weekend, with a gradual warming trend.

Monday through Wednesday, another monsoonal pattern begins to
develop. Low chances for thunderstorms will develop each afternoon 
over the White Mountains, with a gradual increase in afternoon 
thunderstorm chances westward along the higher terrain through 
mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00z package...Isolated showers and 
thunderstorms will develop near KPGA later this afternoon and 
evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue over northern 
Arizona during the TAF period. Gusty southwesterly winds will
diminish later this evening. Aviation discussion not updated for 
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and relatively light southwesterly
winds are forecast for both Friday and Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Low chances for afternoon thunderstorms 
are forecast for the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest each 
afternoon. Dry conditions are expected elsewhere.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...TM
AVIATION...TM
FIRE WEATHER...TM

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff