878 FXUS64 KAMA 190824 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 324 AM CDT Thu Aug 19 2021 .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday Night... The primary concern in the short term will be thunderstorm chances today and tomorrow. Both days have the chance for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm. The forecast for today is a complicated one to say the least. Synoptically, an upper level low continues to propagate to the south and east throughout the day today. This setup will favor lee cyclogenesis off of the higher terrain in SE CO. Later this morning, a disturbance in the upper levels is expected to assist in developing thunderstorms south of the CWA. Some of the storms may clip the far SE TX Panhandle. The duration of these morning storms will play a major role in what may or may not happen later with afternoon thunderstorms. For this afternoon and evening, latest model guidance features a wide variety of solutions. The surface low in SE CO begins to strengthen as the upper level trough approaches. This will aid in pushing in drier air into the western CWA with southwesterly surface winds. With surface winds out of the south across the central and east, a sharp moisture gradient may set up across the area. To the east of this boundary, instability appears to be between 1500-3000 J/kg depending on the model. bulk shear will also be around 25 kts, which could possibly support a severe storm or two this afternoon before daytime heating is lost. There are also a few limitations that will most likely hinder storms from becoming severe. If the disturbance this morning, along with any convection, sticks around for too long, moisture transport into the east may not be as strong as model guidance is suggesting. Low clouds could stick around longer across the east than forecast, which may prevent highs from reaching convective temperatures. Also, the mid level lapse rates are not great (less than 7 C/km). Lastly, H5 temps may be too warm to generate severe hail this afternoon. In conclusion, if everything comes together today, an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across the eastern Panhandles this afternoon. The trough aloft begins to lift towards the Northern Plains through the day Friday. This will transition the upper level flow to the southwest when compared to Thursday. This in turn, will continue to bring in drier air across most of the area. If surface winds across the east can remain more southerly and allow moisture to advect back into the area, thunderstorm chances across the southeastern Texas Panhandle may make a return during the afternoon Friday. If this scenario plays out, instability and shear will be sufficient enough to possibly produce a severe threat across the aforementioned area. Muscha/Hoffeditz && .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday Upper high over the northwest Gulf Saturday builds north across east Texas and Louisiana by 00Z Sunday. The GEFS along with the NAM, GFS and ECMWF all support convection from west Texas across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma between 21Z Saturday and around 06Z Sunday. Perturbations within the southwesterly upper flow will help to trigger scattered convection across mainly the southeastern half of the forecast area. The NBM unrealistically dry during this period while the Superblend and CONSAll much more representative with the convection potential. Decided to disregard the dry-biased NBM and go with the Superblend/CONSAll POPs for Saturday afternoon and evening mainly across the southeastern half of the forecast area. Upper high builds in across the ArkLaTex region Sunday and Monday and then building westward across the southern Plains states into the Panhandles Tuesday. Models are in good agreement in keeping the Panhandles dry Sunday through Tuesday. Upper high then continues building west across the southwestern states and southern Rockies Wednesday. A shortwave trough across the southern Rockies forecast to approach the Panhandles Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night bringing chances for convection to the forecast area from the higher terrain and mountains of Colorado and New Mexico. A nearly stationary frontal boundary across the Panhandles Saturday and Saturday night will lift northward as a warm front by 12Z Sunday. This frontal boundary will also be a focus for convection Saturday afternoon and evening, some of which may become strong to possibly severe. Deepening surface low across eastern Colorado and western Kansas Sunday and Monday with associated surface trough extending into eastern New Mexico will allow for breezy to windy conditions late this weekend into early next week as the surface pressure gradient tightens. Surface low drops south into the Panhandles by Wednesday as a cold front tracks south into the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandles by 00Z Thursday. Schneider && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 94 70 94 68 92 / 10 5 5 5 10 Beaver OK 94 71 98 65 92 / 10 5 5 10 10 Boise City OK 94 63 93 60 89 / 10 5 5 5 0 Borger TX 98 73 99 70 96 / 20 5 5 5 10 Boys Ranch TX 96 68 95 66 93 / 10 5 5 5 10 Canyon TX 93 68 93 67 92 / 10 5 5 5 10 Clarendon TX 91 71 93 70 92 / 20 10 10 5 20 Dalhart TX 93 62 92 59 90 / 5 5 5 5 5 Guymon OK 96 68 97 64 92 / 10 5 5 5 5 Hereford TX 94 67 93 66 92 / 5 5 5 5 10 Lipscomb TX 91 72 97 68 92 / 10 5 5 5 10 Pampa TX 92 70 94 68 92 / 20 5 5 5 10 Shamrock TX 91 71 94 70 92 / 20 10 10 5 20 Wellington TX 93 72 96 70 94 / 20 20 20 20 20 && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 5/36/11