987 FXUS62 KFFC 181146 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 746 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021 ...12Z Aviation Area Forecast Discussion... .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 425 AM EDT Wed Aug 18 2021/ SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/... Beginning to see some signs of the expected patchy fog across the CWA this morning with visibilities dropping at numerous sites. So far have only seen one or two that have dropped below a half mile which isn't enough coverage to warrant an SPS for patchy dense fog as of yet. That said, won't rule one out and will continue to actively monitor trends. Otherwise, low clouds that some guidance had hinted at getting close to the metro haven't really materialized and have remained confined to the mountains of NE GA, which may aid in development of fog across the NE portion of the CWA. Today looks to be a pretty standard summer day in August with highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Still will be a bit humid in our post tropical airmass, and that moisture combined with afternoon heating will provide the opportunity for some afternoon thunderstorms. One feature to note in the short term guidance is the possibility of a more organized area of linear convection approaching the CWA from the west late evening into the early night. A weak shortwave/PV anomaly is currently located over the southern and will quickly traverse east during the day, providing some weak, broad ascent near the Mississippi River valley that should lead to afternoon storms in that area. In some convective models, enough shear and coverage of storms allows for organization of cold pools that push a weak linear segment toward the NW portion of GA. If that occurs and can hold together, could see some better coverage of storms during that time period over NW GA. Tomorrow this shortwave/PV anomaly pushes to the east, providing some weak forcing for ascent, and most models are pretty aggressive on coverage of storms over the CWA, with highest coverage over the NW where better forcing will exist. Not expecting widespread severe with this, as shear will remain weak, but could certainly see a few strong wind gusts in the larger storm cores that develop. Lusk LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/... Long term forecast starts Friday evening with an upper level trough digging across the Great Lakes region as high pressure aloft builds over the area. This will place the CWA in NW flow. Mid level moisture along with west-southwesterly surface flow will help keep diurnally driven convection possible through the weekend. The aforementioned upper level high will assert further dominance on our weather starting Monday creating a drier and warmer pattern. During this period of warmer and drier weather conditions will climb near heat advisory levels especially on Monday and Tuesday across the central FA. 28 && .AVIATION... 12Z Update... Currently VFR at all metro TAF sites with some fog likely related to nearby creek/river at MCN bringing sensor down to IFR or occasionally lower. Any remaining vsby issues should clear quickly and VFR expected through next 24 hours. Some SCT Cu this afternoon will be around with some potential for afternoon CB at all sites. Winds will be light and mostly from W to SW, 4-8 kts. Some chances tomorrow at some lower cigs and better storm chances. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence all elements. Lusk && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 88 72 88 72 / 20 20 60 10 Atlanta 88 72 87 72 / 40 30 70 20 Blairsville 84 66 82 66 / 30 30 70 30 Cartersville 90 72 87 70 / 30 30 70 20 Columbus 91 74 90 73 / 40 30 50 20 Gainesville 87 72 86 71 / 20 20 70 20 Macon 91 73 92 73 / 40 30 60 10 Rome 90 72 87 71 / 30 30 70 30 Peachtree City 89 72 88 71 / 40 30 70 20 Vidalia 90 75 91 75 / 50 30 50 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lusk LONG TERM....28 AVIATION...Lusk