189 FXUS62 KFFC 170301 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1101 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 .UPDATE... Tropical Storm Fred is continuing to move inland across the Florida panhandle/southeastern Alabama towards the local forecast area. Through the overnight hours, Fred is still expected to weaken to a tropical depression. Across the CWA, light showers have overspread much of the area out ahead of Fred, with rainbands moving into southwestern portions of the area. The wind advisory was extended further north and east with the most recent update and still remains in effect through Tuesday evening. The Flash Flood Watch remain in effect through Wednesday morning with little to no changes to the afternoon forecast. Reaves && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 749 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021/ ..Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion... PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 314 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... Tropical Storm Fred continues to move towards the CWA this afternoon with outer convective rain bands moving into FL with heavy rainfall and gusty winds. With a more easterly track Fred is still progged to move on shore this afternoon/evening and then track northward into the CWA. As mentioned in todays earlier update, starting this evening through tomorrow night, QPF amounts of 2-5" will be possible across north and northeastern GA. Of course locally heavier amounts under stronger rain bands will be possible. In collaboration with WPC and neighboring offices a Flash Flood watch has been issued and covers much of GA starting late tonight and expiring Wednesday morning. Also, wind gusts up to 45 mph mainly along a line from Sumter county north towards Jasper county will be possible. As a result a wind advisory continues to be warranted and is in effect from midnight tonight to tomorrow afternoon. The caveat with the windy advisory is that there is a chance that western GA does not meet wind advisory criteria right away or even at all, but we have included these counties to take into account any wobble in the track associated with Fred. Although Fred will enter the CWA this evening/overnight limiting the initial instability and shear by tomorrow afternoon, when peak heating occurs, destabilization will support some severe storms and even an isolated tornado across our very far NE zones. Tomorrow night Fred will quickly begin to dissipate and move northeast of the CWA as impacts do the same. However, locally heavy rainfall will still be an issue for areas across far northern GA until late tomorrow night. 28 LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... Quiet long term portion of the forecast compared to the short term. High pressure will remain centered along the SE coast through Thursday. The top of the ridge gets flattened a bit on Friday as a shortwave trough moves through the flow. After the shortwave trough passes, high pressure will build across the Gulf Coast states and remain in place through the remainder of the forecast period. A few pieces of mid level energy may impact the CWA during this time as they round the northern periphery of the high center. Quiet surface patter as weak high pressure will dominate. NListemaa AVIATION... 00Z Update... SHRA will be likely through the overnight hours and into much of Tuesday as TS Fred crosses the area. Cigs should quickly deteriorate after about 04Z to IFR and remain until Tuesday evening. Winds are expected to increase at all sites with gusts 15-30 kts possible through Tuesday morning, although exact wind speeds will be dependent on track of Fred. SHRA looks to end 19-22Z across metro taf sites with cigs lifting to MVFR/VFR thereafter. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Medium confidence on all elements. Reaves && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 71 80 71 88 / 90 100 70 70 Atlanta 70 78 71 88 / 90 100 60 50 Blairsville 66 74 66 83 / 90 100 80 70 Cartersville 71 79 70 89 / 80 100 60 50 Columbus 72 82 72 90 / 100 100 40 50 Gainesville 70 77 70 87 / 90 100 70 70 Macon 71 85 72 91 / 90 100 40 60 Rome 71 79 71 90 / 70 90 60 50 Peachtree City 70 79 70 89 / 90 100 60 50 Vidalia 74 88 74 91 / 70 90 40 70 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for the following zones: Bibb...Butts...Chattahoochee...Clarke...Clayton...Coweta... Crawford...Crisp...Dooly...Fayette...Greene...Harris...Henry... Houston...Jasper...Jones...Lamar...Macon...Madison...Marion... Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...Oconee... Oglethorpe...Peach...Pike...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley... Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taylor...Troup...Upson... Walton...Webster. Flash Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Tuesday through Wednesday morning for the following zones: Banks...Barrow...Bartow... Bibb...Butts...Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga... Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Dade... Dawson...DeKalb...Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth... Gilmer...Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Haralson...Harris... Heard...Henry...Jackson...Jasper...Jones...Lamar...Lumpkin... Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan... Murray...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee... Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pickens...Pike...Polk...Putnam... Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter... Talbot...Taylor...Towns...Troup...Union...Upson...Walker... Walton...Webster...White...Whitfield. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM....NListemaa AVIATION...Reaves