997 FXUS65 KABQ 152049 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 249 PM MDT Sun Aug 15 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Daily rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity are forecast over the next several days. The most active day of the week is expected on Monday with widespread storms. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, and a few storms may even become strong to severe. Thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Thursday will mainly favor areas along and south of Interstate 40 and along and west of Interstate 25. A drying trend looks to be possible Friday and into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... Showers and thunderstorms have developed over the northern mountains this afternoon and these storms will expand in coverage before shifting southward early this evening. Some storms may produce small hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Most CAMs suggest that the precipitation should make it into at least northern portions of the ABQ metro but will struggle to get much further south. However, strong and gusty outflow winds ahead of the precipitation will likely impact the entire metro area. Most precipitation will taper off by midnight, but a few showers or thunderstorms may persist overnight. Monday continues to look quite active with both the threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, as well as severe weather. An upper level trough will slide down the eastern plains of CO early in the morning, before slowly sliding southward over NM during the afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop over the high terrain by the late morning hours, before again shifting south or southeast through the afternoon and evening. Modest to steep mid level lapse rates (at least across the northern half of the state), will aid in high rainfall rates. This combined with slow storm motions will enhance rainfall amounts in any one area. Furthermore, MLCAPE values should increase to between 1000 and 2000 J/KG thanks to continued high low level moisture, but 0-6km shear values will generally be 25kt or less, limiting storm organization. Multicellular clusters may develop as storms shift southward with brief bouts of hail and/or strong to damaging winds. Heavy rainfall with remain a threat through the evening. The trough is slow to exit the state Monday night, so storms may linger across southern and southeastern portions of the CWA overnight. 34 LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... By Tuesday, the weak upper-level trough will continue to track slowly southward through eastern NM with the trough axis roughly stretched NE-SW from Quay County through Socorro County. This trough will keep shower and thunderstorm activity continuing into Tuesday evening, especially for areas along and south of I-40 where PWATs are forecast to remain above an inch. Models indicate this trough exits into the TX Panhandle by Tuesday evening with drier air behind it limiting storm chances across the east Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Meanwhile, a strong upper-level low will begin to move inland into the PacNW by Tuesday. This low deepens over ID Tuesday evening where it remains through at least Wednesday. A moisture plume developing over eastern AZ/western combined with sufficient instability and lift will increase storm chances for areas along and west of the central mountain chain for mid-week. Low confidence remains after Wednesday as models have not been consistent in what happens with the aforementioned low. The GFS weakens and ejects the low onto the northern plains by Thursday afternoon, introducing drier westerly flow over NM quicker than the other models. The Canadian continues to deepen the low over NV where it stays through Friday. The ECMWF is somewhere in-between which keeps increased storm chances over much of the area through Thursday before setting up drier westerly flow. Regardless, an active pattern looks to persist through most of the work week, but drier conditions are possible Friday and through the weekend. 15 && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns remain minimal for the next seven days. Showers and thunderstorms will move southward off the northern mountains this evening, then a more active day is in store for Monday with numerous thunderstorms expected. Gusty winds will be possible with thunderstorm outflow boundaries both today and Monday. Drier air will filter into the state from the north on Tuesday, and as a result, much less convection is expected. Models remain at odds with the timing and orientation of the trough crossing the Intermountain West mid to late week. Initially, it may bring another increase of showers and thunderstorms to western NM on Wednesday, but after it passes, drier air should move into the area (perhaps by Friday), once again limiting storm coverage. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near to below normal for the next week. Poor ventilation is expected for much of western and central NM on Monday and Tuesday. 34 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Lingering low clouds and fog have finally eroded this morning. Cu are forming across the northern mountains currently, and should see thunderstorm development there by 19-20Z. These storms are expected to shift slowly southward toward KSAF, KAEG and KABQ this evening. Gusty outflows are likely, while MVFR cigs/vsbys are possible in heavy rain. KFMN, KGUP and KLVS may also be impacted by storms late this afternoon and evening though confidence is slightly lower at those terminals. Much of the storm activity will decrease by 06Z, but a few showers or storms may linger overnight. A more active day is expected on Monday. 34 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 61 89 58 92 / 30 20 5 10 Dulce........................... 50 84 47 86 / 50 80 20 30 Cuba............................ 55 80 51 81 / 60 70 40 20 Gallup.......................... 56 85 51 84 / 20 60 20 30 El Morro........................ 53 79 49 79 / 30 70 50 40 Grants.......................... 55 81 49 81 / 30 70 50 30 Quemado......................... 55 80 53 79 / 30 70 60 70 Magdalena....................... 57 78 55 78 / 20 70 70 50 Datil........................... 54 76 51 76 / 20 80 60 60 Reserve......................... 57 83 55 82 / 20 80 50 70 Glenwood........................ 61 83 60 82 / 20 70 40 70 Chama........................... 47 75 46 79 / 60 80 20 30 Los Alamos...................... 57 77 55 79 / 70 80 50 30 Pecos........................... 55 75 53 77 / 50 80 60 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 45 75 45 79 / 70 80 30 30 Red River....................... 44 66 41 71 / 70 80 30 30 Angel Fire...................... 42 70 38 73 / 70 80 30 30 Taos............................ 50 79 47 82 / 70 80 30 30 Mora............................ 50 71 48 76 / 60 80 40 30 Espanola........................ 58 84 56 85 / 70 70 40 20 Santa Fe........................ 57 80 54 81 / 70 80 50 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 82 53 84 / 60 70 50 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 83 60 85 / 50 60 60 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 85 62 87 / 50 60 50 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 87 61 89 / 50 60 50 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 85 61 88 / 50 60 50 20 Belen........................... 63 87 61 89 / 30 60 60 20 Bernalillo...................... 61 88 60 89 / 50 60 50 20 Bosque Farms.................... 62 86 60 89 / 40 60 60 20 Corrales........................ 63 88 61 90 / 50 60 50 20 Los Lunas....................... 62 87 60 89 / 30 60 60 20 Placitas........................ 59 83 57 85 / 60 70 50 20 Rio Rancho...................... 63 87 60 89 / 50 60 50 20 Socorro......................... 63 86 61 87 / 10 50 60 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 58 78 55 79 / 60 70 60 30 Tijeras......................... 59 82 55 81 / 50 70 60 30 Edgewood........................ 56 80 52 81 / 50 70 60 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 55 81 51 82 / 50 60 60 20 Clines Corners.................. 55 76 53 76 / 40 80 60 30 Mountainair..................... 56 78 54 78 / 30 70 60 30 Gran Quivira.................... 56 77 56 76 / 20 70 60 40 Carrizozo....................... 59 79 60 79 / 5 60 60 40 Ruidoso......................... 53 72 54 73 / 10 80 60 60 Capulin......................... 53 76 52 79 / 40 60 20 10 Raton........................... 53 82 51 83 / 40 60 20 20 Springer........................ 55 79 51 83 / 40 70 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 52 75 51 77 / 50 80 50 30 Clayton......................... 61 83 59 86 / 30 40 20 10 Roy............................. 57 77 55 80 / 30 60 40 20 Conchas......................... 63 85 61 85 / 30 50 50 20 Santa Rosa...................... 61 82 60 82 / 20 50 60 20 Tucumcari....................... 63 87 63 85 / 20 30 50 10 Clovis.......................... 62 84 61 80 / 10 40 50 30 Portales........................ 63 85 62 82 / 10 40 50 30 Fort Sumner..................... 63 84 63 83 / 10 40 50 20 Roswell......................... 66 87 66 84 / 5 30 50 30 Picacho......................... 60 79 60 77 / 5 50 50 40 Elk............................. 56 75 57 74 / 5 60 50 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$