710 FXUS64 KLUB 151125 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 625 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this TAF period for locations off of the Caprock. Locations on the Caprock, including KPVW and KLBB will have a chance at seeing IFR to MVFR conditions develop around daybreak as patchy fog or low stratus develops across the region. It remains unclear how dense and thick this stratus/fog will be therefore have only gone with a tempo group for IFR/MVFR conditions at this time. By late morning and continuing through the remainder of the TAF period VFR conditions will return area wide. Isolated thunderstorms may be possible this afternoon however confidence in direct impacts to the area terminals is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. /WCI && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021/ SHORT TERM... Upper level ridge remains across the Great Basin early this morning with the eastern extent of its influence just to the west of the forecast area. Much drier air at the low to mid layers of the atmosphere continues to move southward across the region. This has shunted all of the precipitation to the south of the area. With mostly clear skies, light winds, and recent abundant rainfall some patchy morning fog will be possible for locations west of the Caprock escarpment this morning. This fog will quickly dissipate by mid morning with mostly sunny skies prevailing through the day today. This will allow temperatures to rebound a bit closer to normal with most locations in the mid 80's to near 90 degrees. A few high resolution models indicate isolated showers/thunderstorms developing this afternoon across the southern Rolling and South Plains however drier air and subsidence in the mid levels causes hesitation in adding this to the forecast at this time. With northwest flow aloft in place tonight, a decaying complex of thunderstorms should approach the forecast area from CO/NM. Most guidance decays this complex prior to reaching our area, but may provide a glancing blow to the extreme southwestern Texas panhandle late tonight. /WCI LONG TERM... Abundant moisture is expected to remain in place over the region throughout the week into next weekend with precipitable water values remaining at or above normal. We expect there to be at least a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms each day, but rain chances should be a bit higher Monday night into Tuesday as a mid atmospheric trough pushes south into the Panhandle and West Texas before stalling an weakening. Temperatures overall will remain on the mild side with afternoon highs mostly in the 80s through Tuesday and then warming slightly to include upper 80s and lower to mid 90s for the remainder of the week. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 58/58/04