208 FXUS64 KMAF 150845 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 345 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Some changes from previous cycle. All site currently VFR with SE NM terminals best chance at prox MVFR cigs with KCNM most likely by 12z. KHOB will be similar to last night with local low ceilings possible towards AM, so added tempo for the chance when forecast soundings looked most prime. Light/VRB winds everywhere, veering more southerly during PM hrs. TS chances are much lower than previous days with KFST/KPEQ the sites with best potential after 18z, however confidence in exact location is low, so refrained from prevailing addition until later TAF cycles. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Made some significant short term changes to the forecast in regards to the overnight time frame. Guidance has moved away from the aggressive convective setup over the past 12 hrs, likely in part to a completely overworked atmosphere from this afternoon's plethora of convection that encompassed many of the previously targeted areas. Still have a weak shortwave traversing the Permian Basin and Lea county according to WV satellite, so there is still some minor PoPs b/w 10-15% for part of the area, as well as some 15-20% PoPs out in the Guadalupes as the tail end of the surface trough over the SW US extends back near the high terrain of far W TX. This is a big deal considering the barrage of rainfall that was left in wake of yesterdays precip. Pine Springs Mesonet at Guadalupe Mtn National Park registered over 3" of rain yesterday, one of their wettest days in several years out in those parts. Local flooding risk will continue for that area in particular given the terrain influences and the saturated grounds. A lack of rain tonight is what the doctor ordered to keep flooding at a min for there, so appreciate the quiet nature of tonights forecast. As for the rest of the short term, still looking like a diurnal eruption of widespread convection in the early afternoon into the evening hrs for the high terrain of the Davis Mtns and adjacent Foothills. The scattered nature of the precip coupled with more room for precip places the aforementioned areas in a slightly more favorable flash flood potential, but not enough to warrant a Watch. More urbanized areas like Alpine will have a greater chance for any flood concerns the next 48 hrs, so that will be an area of interest. Precip chances linger for the far western areas thanks to shortwave proxy through the entire stretch of Sun PM through Mon PM with less coverage focused at night due to loss of diurnal heating. Scattered to widespread convection once again forecast areawide for Monday. Temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees below normal for east of the Pecos river valley and 10-15 degrees below, west. It's certainly not feeling like August out there with all the rain and "cooler" summer temps. This will not change through the start of the work week. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 238 AM CDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Monday night, a large upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes region southwest to far west Texas. This will result in increasing chances of thunderstorms through Tuesday. During this time, a secondary trough will begin digging out of the PacNW, nudging the first trough east and developing SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Long-range models are is some disagreement on the progression of the trough, but all swing it through the upper CONUS and to or through the Great Lakes region before or by next weekend. Closer to home, while models don't develop any drylines in the extended, as they are wont to do under SW flow aloft, they do favor developing convection over the Davis Mtns/Big Bend Area each afternoon Wed-Sat. Regarding temps, non-summer continues. Temps Tuesday will be similar to yesterday's as the first trough arrives, bringing precipitation and extra cloud cover. Thicknesses then increase through Friday or so, which may be our warmest day this forecast as highs top out just above normal, then drop a degree or two into the weekend. W/abundant low-level Gulf moisture going nowhere, lows will continue to bump along above-normal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 87 69 89 70 / 20 10 30 20 Carlsbad 82 67 85 65 / 20 10 40 30 Dryden 90 72 93 73 / 50 30 50 10 Fort Stockton 85 68 88 69 / 50 30 50 20 Guadalupe Pass 73 63 74 61 / 40 20 40 30 Hobbs 83 65 84 64 / 10 10 30 30 Marfa 81 60 80 59 / 70 40 60 30 Midland Intl Airport 85 68 88 69 / 20 20 30 20 Odessa 86 69 89 69 / 20 20 40 20 Wink 87 70 90 69 / 30 10 40 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...87