346 FXUS63 KDTX 141130 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 730 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 .AVIATION... A strong area of surface high pressure with deep midlevel subsidence will yield prevailing SKC today. Moist antecedent soil conditions brings potential for a high based diurnal cumulus this afternoon. Light northerly winds will eventually veer to the northeast tonight. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * None. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 356 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 DISCUSSION... Dry weather will carry us through Sunday and potentially Monday as broad area of surface high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. Friday's cold front forced the deep moisture south of the state with PWATS now just over a half inch with dewpoints comfortably in the 50s. Mid/upper level trough will be sliding over the region bringing cooler air today which will slowly moderate through Sunday. 850mb temps today will dip down to around 9C before warming back into the low teens by Sunday evening. Full sun will attempt to counter the cool air resulting in highs in the upper 70s. Low dewpoints in the 50s along with mostly clear skies will allow for some cool nights ahead. Winds should be light today as soundings advertise single digit wind speeds up to nearly 700 mb so even with deep mixing today there is not much wind to mix down. Once the upper trough swings east of the region, the polar jet repositions itself well north of the local area through central latitudes of Canada. Models continue to advertise a weak mid level trough setting up over the mid MS Valley early in the week with ridging over the east coast and the surface high drifting toward New England. This all sets up southerly return flow up from the Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley region through the end of the week. With weak flow aloft and no real forcing to key off, chances of precip would be mostly diurnally driven with some mid level support from divergence out of the weak trough. The surface high will combat this weak moist advection initially, possible keeping us dry through Monday but continued moisture advection and possible moisture/forcing boost from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred advancing north along the Appalachians. Forecast will be littered with chance pops mid/late week until we can start keying on specific features/time windows for best chances. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s through much of the week. MARINE... Light northwesterly flow persists throughout the day as high pressure expands into the central Great Lakes. As the center of the high tracks overhead on Sunday, winds return to the southwest. Expect dry conditions to persist through the weekend and into early next week before the next chance for rain arrives mid-week as a series of upper waves approach the Great Lakes region. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && $$ AVIATION.....CB DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......MV You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.