739 FXUS64 KLUB 122310 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 610 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 .AVIATION... Scattered thunderstorms will continue near Lubbock (KLBB) and Plainview (KPVW) terminals through at least 03z (10 pm) this evening. This activity has shown a propensity for brief heavy downpours and convective wind gusts to 50 knots or greater. Around/after sunset, should see things quiet down. A repeat setup for Friday so should again see decent coverage of monsoon thunderstorm activity within deep subtropical moisture regime...especially over the higher terrain on the Caprock. James && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 246 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021/ SHORT TERM... Monsoonal moisture has pushed back towards New Mexico today, which will limit how far east storms will make it into the South and Rolling Plains later this afternoon into tonight. A few features of interest exist this afternoon in New Mexico, which could help to enhance our chances of precipitation over the South Plains region. The standard summertime surface trough remains draped over eastern New Mexico providing surface convergence. Two Mesoscale Convective Vertices (MCVs) also exist (one moving into central New Mexico and one over southeastern New Mexico). These features could result in a mid-level lift over eastern New Mexico and bring increased chances of convective initiation near the New Mexico / Texas state line. Similar to yesterday, meager shear will keep storms mostly unorganized. These storms should slowly move east and northeast into the area and could cause locally heavy rain and downburst winds. Guidance is somewhat hinting that the MCV over southeastern New Mexico may move towards the forecast area later today and allow for additional storm development within the South Plains. Storms should decrease in coverage shortly after sunset; however, a low-level jet is expected to develop later tonight. This jet would help to reintensify any ongoing showers and thunderstorms, and if the MCV is near the area, it could help develop additional thunderstorms tonight. If this activity occurs, it should come to an end shortly after sunrise. Cloud cover over the South Plains and western Rolling Plains will help to keep temperatures cooler tomorrow. A weakness is expected to form within the periphery of the upper ridge that is currently over the region tomorrow afternoon. As the weakness moves over the higher terrain of New Mexico and a surface trough to our west, it will promote storm development. This activity is progged to move east and southeast into the Panhandle and South Plains regions later tomorrow. Storm hazards will be similar to what is expected today. GKendrick LONG TERM... The weak inverted upper level trough providing the moist monsoonal plume mainly across the western South Plains will weaken and retreat to the southwest by the middle of the weekend. But a passing upper trough in eastern North America will send a weak outflow infused cold front into the area which could generate storm chances Saturday, or perhaps not until Sunday mainly just to our south. We will retain thunderstorm chances through the weekend similar to previous forecasts. But confidence in timing and location of these storms during the weekend in particular remains low. Cooler temperatures also look valid. And if an earlier passage of this front/outflow occurs, highs on Saturday could be somewhat cooler than presently forecast. By early next week flow aloft will be weak northwesterly, with new solutions runs showing a bit of a more pronounced upper trough re-carving the trough just to our east, and perhaps supporting low thunder chances Monday at least. Beyond, we expect the monsoonal plume aloft to recover back across the area by mid week anyway, and thus some chance for low thunderstorm coverage. The first half of August is typically "moist" this area, and forcing typically weak, but takes little to generate storm chances. Looks like that is the case with this pattern as well. RMcQueen && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 06