186 FXUS65 KLKN 110827 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 127 AM PDT Wed Aug 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with much above normal temperatures expected. A few afternoon buildups and isolated showers and storms possible over the next few days, mainly over central Nevada. Some hazy and smokey conditions could linger but should be improving by the end of the week. && .UPDATE...Today through Thursday evening...Strong ridging over the Pacific Northwest expands towards the Great Basin over next few days. While there could be a few buildups over central NV this afternoon, models have trended more stable as drier air over northern NV pushes south. Not expecting any showers or storms today. However, a moisture increase on Thursday could bring some isolated convection in central Nevada, mainly on the dry side. In addition Pacific moistures pushes into northwest Nevada and, if isolated thunderstorms are able to form, they could be more of a mix of wet and dry as P-wat's could climb above 0.75". Hazy and smokey conditions could linger today, but should improve as we heads towards Thursday as winds aloft will generally keep it to our west. Winds will be diurnally terrain-driven 5-15 mph. With ridge building in expect very warm to hot temps with highs in the 90s to low 100s. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday evening... Strong ridging over the Pacific Northwest expands towards the Great Basin over next few days. While there could be a few buildups over central NV this afternoon, models have trended more stable as drier air over northern NV pushes south. Not expecting any showers or storms today. However, a moisture increase on Thursday could bring some isolated convection in central Nevada, mainly on the dry side. In addition Pacific moistures pushes into northwest Nevada and, if isolated thunderstorms are able to form, they could be more of a mix of wet and dry as P-wat's could climb above 0.75". Hazy and smokey conditions could linger today, but should improve as we heads towards Thursday as winds aloft will generally keep it to our west. Winds will be diurnally terrain- driven 5-15 mph. With ridge building in expect very warm to hot temps with highs in the 90s to low 100s. .LONG TERM...Thursday night through next Tuesday... Longwave ridge continues its fairly quick easterly track across the Great Basin on Friday and Saturday. Much above normal temperatures continue, with highs in the mid 90's to lower 100's. Afternoon build-ups continue for mainly central Nevada with some isolated dry thunderstorms, though this could stretch into northeast Nevada on Saturday afternoon. Some local afternoon breezes continue but no big winds expected outside of thunderstorms. A longwave starts to push into the Western U.S. starting on Sunday, with the main Low well north into Canada. There is fairly good model/ensemble agreement that the longwave hangs out in the West at least through Tuesday, if not Wednesday. However, the impacts for our region from this pattern is dependent on how deep the wave digs, which is not clear at this time. It does appear that a couple of cold fronts will move through during this period, which will start a cooling trend beginning on Sunday as heights lower, and by Tuesday temperatures could even be a bit below normal. Gradients will tighten so that winds increase beginning on Sunday, especially in northern Nevada. While this could create Fire Weather concerns, RH should be on the rise at the same time which may mitigate the threat. A daily shower and thunderstorm regime should be in place, especially if subtropical moisture is able to get drawn into the system, particularly along cold front passages. && .AVIATION...Hazy and smoky conditions possible, mainly at TPH and ELY, and vis could be reduced to MVFR. Winds generally 6-12kts. Some afternoon high based buildups expected at ELY and TPH. Density altitudes increase today and through the week as much above normal temperatures return. && .FIRE WEATHER...Could be a few buildups over central NV today, but drier, more stable air should limit any showers or storms from developing. Will see an uptick in moisture and instability on Thursday that could will likely be buildups and possible mix of wet/dry storms. Winds will generally be diurnally terrain-driver 5-15 mph with a few higher gusts possible near any collapsing buildups. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 87/94/87/87