448 FXUS64 KHGX 081737 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1237 PM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021 .AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]... Latest radar imagery showing a gradual expansion of showers pushing inland, with this trend expected to continue throughout the remainder of the afternoon as daytime heating continues and the sea breeze moves inland. Coverage should be scattered enough to warrant only VCSH/VCTS wording in TAFs at this time. Northern terminals (UTS/CLL/CXO) are less likely to experience precipitation during the afternoon but a stray shower/storm cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, expect southerly winds around 10-15 knots with gusts approaching 20 knots at times. Winds and rainfall coverage both taper off with the loss of daytime heating this evening. MVFR decks may develop around the northern sites overnight and into the early hours of tomorrow morning, though I am not confident enough at the moment to include BKN/OVC coverage. A similar setup to today is expected tomorrow as we remain in a typical summertime weather pattern. Cady && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 633 AM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Today Through Monday Night]... Weak upper-level ridging will give way to a more zonal flow as a weak upper-level trough passes through the Central Plains on Sunday afternoon/Monday. As a result, temperatures on Sunday and Monday will be essentially the same with highs in the mid 90s, which is seasonable for this time of the year. Surface high pressure remains in place over the eastern Gulf and is continuing to pump in low- level moisture with onshore flow persisting. The increased humidity will lead to heat indices in the 105-107 range for today and Monday, so be sure to take the proper precautions to stay safe from the heat if you have plans to be outdoors for extended periods of time. Some of you may get lucky and win the weather lottery of receiving relief from the heat in the form of rain! Our typical pattern of late morning/afternoon showers and thunderstorms moving inland from the coast along the seabreeze will continue into early next week. PoPs remain generally higher for locations south of I-10. Upper-level ridging returns once again heading into Tuesday. Batiste .LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Sunday]... Flat mid level ridging extending across the northern Gulf Coast should prevail for much of the week. In the llvls, s/se flow off the Gulf will continue. Fairly normal August wx is expected with isolated to scattered diurnally driven precip each day...mainly in association with the seabreeze. Weak backdoor frontal boundary may try to approach ne/e parts of the CWA late next weekend and may provide another focusing mechanism for some precip...but way too early to overanalyze those details this far out. 47 .MARINE... Onshore flow will prevail thru the period. A tighter pressure gradient is in place compared to what we've had the past several days. Wind speeds are currently close to caution criteria, but anticipate they'll drop a touch in the coming hours. Rinse-repeat into the early to mid parts of the weak (highest winds at night offshore). Gradient relaxes and lighter winds are expected going into the second half of the week. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 76 94 76 96 76 / 0 20 0 20 0 Houston (IAH) 79 95 78 95 78 / 0 40 0 40 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 91 83 91 82 / 10 30 10 30 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$