092 FXUS64 KLUB 080540 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1240 AM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021 .AVIATION... VFR will prevail throught the forecast period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021/ SHORT TERM... An upper level short wave will emerge from the Rockies this evening onto the Central Plains. A belt of winds around 50-60kt at 250mb will move across the Panhandle this evening bringing some large scale lift to the area. However, most of this lift will be concentrated in the Texas Panhandle. The tail end of the lift will extend down into the South Plains. Surface dew points and winds have increased today in response to the short wave with isolated convection still possible late this afternoon into the early evening. Any convection that does develop will likely be confined mostly to areas on the caprock underneath a mid-level moisture plume and a low level theta-e axis. Within this theta-e axis, progged mixed layer instability of up to 1000 J/kg would be sufficient enough to produce storms tall enough to bring isolated strong wind gusts. However, there is a chance storms may not even develop given the amount of capping that is currently present in the atmosphere. Mid level moisture will then become trapped near the center of the ridge in New Mexico on Sunday. Strong surface heating in this area and adjacent areas of the Permian Basin will likely result in isolated convection. It remains unclear on how far north this activity will make it into the South Plains and will depend on the location of the northern edge of the mid level moisture plume. Additionally, smoke from western CONUS wildfires will start to filter overhead on Sunday possibly bringing increasingly hazy skies. LONG TERM... Upper ridging over the Gulf Coast states into South Texas will begin to build northwestward at the start of the long term period. This will combine with existing upper high pressure over the Desert Southwest resulting in a broad, zonally elongated area of upper ridging which will overspread much of the Southern CONUS by Monday afternoon. With this upper ridging firmly in place over the area, Monday is expected to remain dry as a subtle subsidence inversion near 700mb persists through the day and deep mixing promotes large T/Td spreads limiting available instability. Monday will also likely feature the warmest high temperatures of the forecast period, but with temperatures remaining below 100F across the CWA. The forecast beyond Monday remains generally unchanged, as the upper ridge is progged to continue shifting northwestward, eventually building into a broad upper anticyclone centered over the Great Basin by midweek. Guidance still differs a bit regarding the zonal extent of this upper anticyclone which does have consequences for precipitation chances during the middle and end of the week. All solutions currently depict a fair amount of monsoonal moisture lingering under the ridge throughout the week leading to daily diurnal terrain-induced convection through much of the Intermountain West. Some solutions, however, favor an expansion of the upper ridge axis to the southeast by late week, overspreading the TX/OK Panhandles. Other solutions keep the ridge more confined to the west, placing the CWA along the outer perimeter of the upper anticyclone. This first scenario would serve to lessen precip chances over the CWA through late week, while the second scenario would allow for embedded disturbances within the upper flow to move closer to the CWA, bringing cooler temperatures and better chances for precipitation. For now, have gone with a blend of these solutions with chance PoPs for mainly the western half of the CWA mid to late week. /DWK && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 55/99/99