265 
FXUS64 KTSA 080529
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1229 AM CDT Sun Aug 8 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Main concern for this TAF period will be how much, if any, of
current convection across Kansas and north central Oklahoma makes
it into our area. Currently, expect storms to weaken as the night
goes on and generally fall apart before affecting many TAF sites.
KBVO stands the best chance of seeing some showers and storms
during the overnight hours. Storms should remain mostly north of
KTUL/KRVS but a small chance for some rain will be possible there
too later tonight but confidence is too low at this point to
mention. Conditions should stay mostly VFR with some MVFR vsbys 
possible within any thunderstorms. After sunrise mid clouds and 
gusty southerly winds will be common for the rest of the period. 
Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible tomorrow afternoon 
across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

Bowlan

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 929 PM CDT Sat Aug 7 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe MCS continues to push into central sections of 
Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle late this evening. Still expect
activity will begin to weaken as storms approach the area late 
tonight as atmosphere continues to stabilize with nose of warmer 
air in the 900-850 MB layer remaining. Still the potential for a 
few scattered thunderstorms late tonight, including northwest 
Arkansas after 12Z. Some minor adjustments to pops, otherwise, 
forecast on track with no other changes currently anticipated. 
Update has been sent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   95  78  97  79 /  30  20  10   0 
FSM   95  77  96  78 /  20  10  10   0 
MLC   94  77  96  77 /  20   0   0   0 
BVO   93  75  96  77 /  30  30  10  10 
FYV   91  73  93  74 /  20  20  10  10 
BYV   91  74  93  75 /  30  20  10  10 
MKO   93  77  95  77 /  20  10  10   0 
MIO   92  74  93  76 /  30  30  10  10 
F10   95  76  96  77 /  20  10   0   0 
HHW   93  76  94  76 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....04