232 FXUS62 KFFC 070554 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 154 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021 .UPDATE... 06z Aviation update below. Baker && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 904 PM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021/ UPDATE... No significant changes this evening...precip coverage will wane after sunset and then increase tomorrow as the upper trough to our west pushes eastward and better dynamics are seen across the area. Have left the mention of thunder in the forecast as MUCAPES continue to look reasonable for such mention. 28 PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 PM EDT Fri Aug 6 2021/ SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... GA remains between two systems during the short term. Low pressure over eastern GA/SC will drift slowly east to northeast through the period. Instability is marginal across much of the forecast area so thunderstorms should be isolated. Any showers and a few thunderstorms associated with this low should be mainly confined to areas east of KMCN to KAHN this afternoon and evening. An upper level trough over the lower MS Valley this afternoon is expected to swing eastward to the southern Appalachians by Sunday morning. Upper dynamics associated with this trough should give better chances for convection on Saturday into Saturday evening. A few showers and thunderstorms could develop during the night...mainly northwest...as this trough begins it eastward drift. Max temperatures on Saturday should range near or slightly below normal. 41 LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/... The period begins in the wake of a shortwave that has traversed the area over the past day or so, with slightly increased PoPs for eastern Georgia on Sunday morning as a result of lingering moisture. With the shortwave on the periphery of the southeast, mid to upper levels become disorganized into an almost zonal flow that carries into mid week. This, combined with the western extent of the Bermuda high nudging into the region, means a return to a more typical summertime pulse convective environment, with chance PoPs expected across a majority of our area. The ambiguous pattern aloft will help to prevent any real organization of any showers or storms that develop, but thanks to temperatures returning to seasonable low to mid 90s as we enter the work week, coupled with PWATs in the 1.5-2" range, the strongest storms may be accompanied by gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Dews in the low to mid 70s combined with temperatures in the low to mid 90s mean keeping a watchful eye on heat indices approaching heat advisory criteria on Monday, especially so for central Georgia and our southernmost counties . Martin/96 AVIATION... 00Z Update... VFR will continue through the night with MVFR/IFR ceilings possible at KAHN/KMCN/KCSG after 09z. Isolated TS will be possible across the entire area until sunset, but should not impact any sites. Precipitation coverage increases tomorrow with all sites having a shot at VCSH/TSRA after 18z. Winds will remain light through the forecast period. Winds will start east and slowly shift to the southwest tomorrow morning. //ATL Confidence...00Z Update...Medium confidence on MVFR/IFR CIGS. High confidence on all other elements. 28 && .AVIATION... 06Z Update... While sites near KATL could have FEW/SCT 2500-3000 ft and thicker alto/cirrus this morning, other sites to east and south could have IFR/MVFR cigs (even possible LIFR at KMCN) with some reduced MVFR vsbys. Should improve after 14-16z with cu 3500-4500 by afternoon and some continued alto cigs. Increasing precip chances with upper wave today after 15z. Enough of TSRA chance to have prob30 20-24z. Winds calm to light VRB this morning becoming light SW to W during day and then back to calm or light VRB Saturday night. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium on overall cig coverage this morning and daytime coverage of precip. High on all else. Baker && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 87 68 91 71 / 40 20 20 10 Atlanta 88 70 91 72 / 40 30 20 10 Blairsville 81 62 84 65 / 50 20 30 10 Cartersville 87 68 91 70 / 30 20 20 10 Columbus 89 72 92 73 / 40 10 20 10 Gainesville 86 68 89 70 / 40 20 20 10 Macon 90 70 93 72 / 40 20 20 10 Rome 88 69 92 71 / 30 20 20 10 Peachtree City 88 69 91 71 / 40 20 20 10 Vidalia 87 72 91 73 / 50 20 30 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...28 LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...Baker