789 FXUS64 KHGX 050447 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1147 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021 .AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]... Shower activity has generally diminished across the area with the loss of daytime heating, but some isolated showers will move near IAH through the next few hours due to outflow boundaries moving in from the east. Generally light and variable winds are seen across the area with southeasterly flow expected to return during the mid to late morning and continue through the day. VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a SCT cloud deck between 2000 and 3000 ft developing across the eastern half of the area tonight (so including CLL, SGR, and LBX). There is a chance that this deck will become BKN at times bringing some temporary MVFR conditions through the mid morning. Guidance has been trending drier for the afternoon, so have taken the VCSH/VCTS wording out of the IAH and HOU forecasts. But, have left the VC wording in at GLS, LBX, and SGR as these areas should still get some scattered precipitation during the late morning to afternoon period. Any shower activity that develops should dissipate after sunset. Fowler && .PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 639 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021/... .SHORT TERM [Through Thursday Night]... The stalled frontal boundary continues to push slowly further offshore this afternoon, with showers and storms tapering off over the past several hours as this has occurred. That being said, fairly robust moisture remains situated roughly over the southern half of the area (i.e., south of the I-10 corridor), with satellite-derived PW values ranging from as low as 1.2 in near Crockett to approximately 2.2 in around Matagorda Bay. As the boundary continues its slow departure overnight, HiRes models indicate the development of another round of showers/storms which may stretch into tomorrow morning focused along the coast and near Matagorda Bay. While most activity should remain situated offshore, HREF members are in fairly good agreement in showing some activity making inland over the southwestern zones. As a result, have maintained 20-30% PoPs in these locations. A synoptic pattern shift arrives on Thursday as a longwave trough becomes the dominant feature over the central CONUS. With the base of the trough axis pushing into central TX by tomorrow afternoon and SE TX by the evening, another round of showers and storms is possible during the day though development north of I-10 will be stifled by relatively lower moisture availability (PWs look unlikely to recover to much higher than 1.5-1.6in). PoPs will remain highest over the southwestern zones, around 40-50%. Overall, temperatures remain near to slightly below seasonal normals through tomorrow with highs reaching the upper 80s along the coast to lower 90s inland. Lows remain near normal, in the upper 70s to near 80 close to the coast. Cady .LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday Night]... Friday looks to be the last "wet" day of the week as a trough moves off to the east. Not everyone will get rain, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop across a large part of the area. Heading into the weekend and into the first half of next week, high pressure (both at the surface and aloft) is expected to strengthen across the area. Lowering precipitable water values (finally under two inches for a majority of the area) in combination with a generally subsident airmass will probably allow for only isolated to widely scattered mainly daytime shower and/or thunderstorm development. The main weather story for a majority of the long term period will likely be a return of the heat and humidity. Daytime high temperatures for inland locations will get back into a mid to upper 90 range while it stays closer to around 90 at the coast. With the dew points persisting in the 70s, heat index values will have some potential to get back into that "close to" Heat Advisory range. 42 .MARINE... A stalled front near the coast will continue to kick up showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the work week. Seas are expected to remain 1 to 2 feet outside of convection, but expect locally higher heights and gusty conditions in and around these showers and storms. Onshore winds will resume by the weekend and will slowly increase, possibly reaching caution levels. This strengthening flow will also bring seas back up to a 3 to 4 foot range. Decreasing rain chances can be expected over the weekend and on into the start of next week. 42 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 92 74 92 75 / 10 20 10 30 0 Houston (IAH) 75 93 76 93 76 / 50 20 10 50 0 Galveston (GLS) 81 90 81 90 82 / 40 30 20 40 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$