470 
FXUS64 KTSA 042331
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
631 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A few showers continue across portions of nwrn AR and sern OK this
evening, and will likely continue for a couple more hours before
dissipating. No lightning has been detected in any of this activity
so far today. Otherwise, VFR tonight with variable mid/high clouds,
with possible decreased vsbys BVO/FYV similar to this morning in
BR/HZ. Mid clouds appear to increase ern OK Thursday morning, and
nwrn AR during the afternoon. Carried PROB30 TSRA groups after 18z 
most sites as instability increases during the afternoon, and short 
wave translates into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 221 PM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

The main change to the forecast today was to increase PoPs with 
the wave forecast to swing across the region on Thursday. Also, 
PoPs were trended upward and expanded south a bit over the weekend
in association with a passing wave to our north.

The upper pattern is in transition from the amplified regime that
brought us below average temps and lower humidity, to a flatter,
more zonal pattern which will bring back the more typical early
August heat and humidity. As this transition occurs, a wave will
be sliding across the region in the NW flow aloft. Models,
especially the CAMs, are more aggressive with the potential
coverage of showers and storms and have thus increased PoPs over
the blended guidance both tomorrow and tomorrow night. By tomorrow
night, a decent low level jet and resulting waa/moisture transport
could set off a few showers and storms.

After the pattern flattens out, a wave will be passing by to our
north this weekend. An associated boundary could set off storms as
far south as northern OK into northwest AR. The forecast yesterday
and today follows the same theme of increasing chances above
blended guidance, with the blended guidance also trending upward.

Mid level heights rise going into next week. While there is some
hints in the data of some potential on its eastern fringe across
eastern portions of the area, will elect to keep the forecast dry
for now.

Below average temps today and tomorrow will trend toward above
average by the weekend, with heat headlines likely for at least
parts of the area. This heat will continue into next week. Summer
is far from over.

Lacy 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  89  70  93 /   0  20  10  10 
FSM   69  89  70  92 /  10  20  20  20 
MLC   68  88  68  93 /  20  30  20  20 
BVO   65  86  66  92 /  10  20  10   0 
FYV   63  85  64  88 /   0  20  20  20 
BYV   64  84  66  88 /   0  10  20  20 
MKO   68  86  68  91 /  10  30  20  20 
MIO   67  84  67  90 /  10  20  10  10 
F10   67  89  68  93 /   0  30  20  10 
HHW   69  88  70  91 /  10  20  20  20 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....30
AVIATION.....69