157 
FXUS64 KLUB 041115
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
615 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are set to continue through the TAF period. An
outside chance of a shower or thunderstorm mainly west of the
terminals, and maybe a brief dip of visibility to around 6SM due
to haze/smoke are two items of note.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 252 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021/ 

SHORT TERM...
A weak upper level short wave trough over northeastern New Mexico is 
helping sustain thunderstorms on the Sacramentos as well as a weaker 
batch of showers in east-central New Mexico. This trough will move 
slowly eastward through the day with the potential for the eastern 
New Mexico showers to make their way into the northwestern counties 
later this morning. However, sub-cloud moisture remains quite dry as 
low level moisture has yet to return to its pre-frontal levels. As a 
result, fairly modest high-based convection likely will not be heavy 
enough to sustain persistent and more widespread precipitation 
through the course of the morning and into early afternoon. The 
weakness aloft should remain over the Panhandle to South Plains 
early evening with the potential for some isolated weak shower or 
thunderstorm activity developing in the vicinity of the trough, but 
concerns similar to those above should still be present. Will 
continue with a slight chance mention far northwest this morning and 
introduce a slight chance mention this evening. Meanwhile 
temperatures should remain very close to MOS and forecast 
initialization, as is typical for this time of year. Only other item 
of mention is that haze resulting from near-surface smoke that 
originated with the western CONUS and Canadian wildfires will 
remain noticeable, in particular across the Rolling Plains and far 
southeastern Panhandle.

LONG TERM...
The mid/upper-level anticyclone currently centered over the Desert 
Southwest will continue to de-amplify by Thursday into Friday, with 
the ridge breakdown modulated by a mid-level shortwave trough 
ejecting into the Intermountain West as a potent cyclone pivots into 
the Pacific Northwest region. Relatively benign weather is forecast 
to continue through the weekend as the southwestern ridge flattens 
while a secondary ridge located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and 
southeastern U.S. amplifies. How far west the eastern ridge expands 
is not yet certain, though the gradual increase in geopotential 
heights across the CWA will lead to temperatures rising into the 
upper 90s to perhaps the century mark across the Rolling Plains this 
weekend. The amplification/westward expansion of the Bermuda High 
should shove the progressive shortwave pattern towards the 
U.S./Canadian border, leaving the CWA beneath generally zonal flow 
early next week with low chances for precipitation in vicinity of 
any surface trough that develops by D7/D8 in the forecast period.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07/09/07