892 
FXUS64 KAMA 040528 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1228 AM CDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.AVIATION...
The best chance at seeing a rain shower looks to be at DHT from
around sunrise until the late morning. GUY and AMA may see a
shower in the afternoon, but it looks like too low of a chance to
mention in this forecast. Southerly winds will continue around 10
knots. Skies are expected to remain VFR outside of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 627 PM CDT Tue Aug 3 2021/ 

AVIATION...00z TAF Cycle...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail, yet high and mid level
clouds will be on the increase overnight into tomorrow. A few
thunderstorms are slowly moving eastward out of northeast NM, but
are not expected to remain thunderstorms very far beyond the NM 
border going into the evening hours. While a thunderstorm can't 
completely be ruled out at KDHT overnight through tomorrow, most 
of the activity should be in the form of showers. 

Ward

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 237 PM CDT Tue Aug 3 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
For tonight through Wednesday night, an upper level shortwave trof
embedded in the northwest flow aloft pattern is forecast to slowly 
track south southeast across the southern Rockies tonight and 
Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over
the higher terrain of CO and NM later this afternoon and tonight,
with some of the showers and storms possibly moving into the far
western and northwestern counties through tonight. There will be a
tight pop gradient in this part of the fcst area, with overall
highest values in the far nwrn zones closest to the NM and CO
state lines. The threat for showers and tstms will continue
Wednesday into Wednesday evening across mainly western sections as
the upper level shortwave trof continues it south southeastward
track. Short range models are in general agreement and were accepted.

An upper level ridge of high pressure is then forecast to regain
control of the weather across the region later Thursday through 
Monday. This translates to dry weather along with a return of 
above normal temperatures, including triple digit max temperatures
in some locations Friday through Monday. Medium range models support
this scenario and were accepted. 

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

15/24