525 
FXUS64 KTSA 032334
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 PM CDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Smoke/haze/fog will lower visibilities to mainly MVFR overnight
into Wednesday morning, with conditions improving to VFR by late
Wednesday morning. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 131 PM CDT Tue Aug 3 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...

No major points of emphasis in today's forecast, aside from the
returning heat.

A deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS and resulting broad 
surface ridging over the Plains is bringing a much desired break
from the heat across the region. While the deep and rich tropical
moisture has been forced down closer to the Gulf coast, a pocket 
of higher PWAT air remains over southern/western AR into southeast
OK. Combine this moisture with elevated daytime heating in the 
terrain and the result is spotty afternoon showers. No lightning 
has been observed in this activity, and this threat appears pretty
low going into the evening. While some low mentionable PoPs will 
be carried into the evening, no mention of thunder will be 
included. We could see a repeat tomorrow afternoon, though 
coverage is uncertain and will keep PoPs below mentionable levels.
Smoky skies will continue while a northerly component to the 
upper flow persists. Will maintain haze mention in the grids thru 
tomorrow.

As the pattern deamplifies later this week, a wave will slide
across the Plains in the NW flow. However, moisture will be
lacking and see no reason to deviate from blended guidance silent
PoPs for now. In the wake of this system, southerly to
southwesterly low level flow will mark the move back to hot and 
humid weather, with headlines possible.

A progressive wave is expected to trek across the central/northern
Plains this weekend. An associated boundary could set off
convection near the Kansas border and have included a slight
chance for storms at that time.

Mid level heights are expected to rise by early next week as the 
ridge is forecast to build over the region. Expect a continued
stretch of hot and humid weather and possible headlines.
Climatologically, mid July to mid August is the hottest time of
year, so summer is far from over.

Lacy

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....05